The centerpiece stat is a self-own: she cites a 35-year study where 12.3% of 677 gifted kids reached "eminence" (full professor, Fortune 500 exec, federal judge) as proof the category is a lie. The general-population base rate for outcomes that rarefied is far worse, much closer to zero than double digit percentage. 12.3% is the selection mechanism working spectacularly.
最核心的那个统计数据反而是在自打脸:她引用了一项为期 35 年的研究,称在 677 名 gifted kids(天才儿童)中有 12.3% 达到了“eminence”(杰出地位:full professor、Fortune 500 exec、federal judge),并把这当作“gifted”这个类别是个谎言的证据。可对普通人群来说,这种极其稀有结果的基准发生率要低得多,更接近于零,而不是两位数百分比。12.3% 恰恰说明这种筛选机制发挥了惊人的作用。