The biggest problem with AI is that priors need to be reset every few weeks.. and it seems like most people are incapable of doing that. I talk to so many people who say xyz doesn’t work and when I ask when was the last time they tried testing it, the answer is always “a few months ago.” Brother that’s like eons ago in AI timelines. This is why each person needs to have their own evals of hard tasks and weekly tinker time to truly understand where the frontier is. And then you need to talk to enterprise buyers weekly who are usually two years behind. But they are the buyers so you need to understand how to market. The combination of the two will give you a pretty good sense of where to invest time and capital. If you just do these two weekly, you’ll be ahead of 99% of people.
AI 最大的问题在于，人们每隔几周就需要重置自己的 priors（先验判断）……而看起来大多数人都做不到这一点。我和很多人聊过，他们会说 xyz 不行；可当我问他们上一次实际测试它是什么时候，答案总是“几个月前”。老兄，在 AI 的时间尺度里，那都已经像几个纪元以前了。这也是为什么每个人都需要有自己针对高难任务的 evals（评测），以及每周固定的 tinker time（动手试验时间），这样才能真正理解前沿到底在哪里。然后，你还需要每周和 enterprise buyers（企业采购方）交流，他们通常落后两年。但他们才是买单的人，所以你必须明白该如何做 marketing（市场推广）。把这两者结合起来，你就会对时间和资本该投向哪里形成相当不错的判断。你只要每周都做这两件事，就会领先 99% 的人。
Hi @tobi, had fun taking UCP CLI through the paces last night for a side project. Some observations and feedback that me & Claude Code had for you!
Hi @tobi，昨晚我为了一个 side project（副项目）认真试用了 UCP CLI，玩得很开心。这里有一些我和 Claude Code 想给你的观察与反馈！