Rough estimate on $ productivity lost by Fable 5 ban: $12M per hour Frontier AI-coding daily actives, mid-2026: 5M devs Fully-loaded cost: $90/hr Work routed to Fable in 48 hours: 17.8% Fable is on average ~15% more productive Effective throughput loss per dev = 17.8% × 15% ≈ 2.7% of output 2.7% × $90/hr = ~$2.40/dev/hr × 5M devs = $12M per working hour
对 Fable 5 封禁所造成生产力损失金额的粗略估算：每小时 $12M。到 2026 年中，Frontier AI-coding 的日活跃用户：500 万开发者；fully-loaded cost（完全成本）：$90/小时；在 48 小时内被路由到 Fable 的工作：17.8%；Fable 平均可提升约 15% 的生产力；因此每位开发者的有效吞吐损失 = 17.8% × 15% ≈ 产出的 2.7%；2.7% × $90/小时 = 约 $2.40/开发者/小时；再乘以 500 万开发者 = 每个工作小时 $12M。
I think you still need both, but the main lede is: technical founders now have access to business thinking Business founders now have access to technical thinking Net net: more startups that actually work, period
我认为你仍然两者都需要，但主要的 lede（核心信息）是：技术型创始人现在能够获得商业思维；商业型创始人现在能够获得技术思维；net net（归根结底）：真正能跑通的 startup 会更多，就这么简单。
We don’t care what your age is We care if you can build with craft and care And if you can make something people want
我们不在乎你的年龄是多少；我们在乎的是你是否能以精湛技艺和认真态度去 build（构建）；以及你是否能做出人们真正想要的东西。