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🎙 播客Training Data· 2026 年 6 月 10 日· 6,329 词 · 约 32 分钟

LIVE: Jensen Huang on Building the Dynamo of the Intelligence Age

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Speaker 100:00 - 00:32
Thank you so much, Jensen. So we are in the middle of a massive AI revolution. It is probably bigger and faster than even the industrial revolution. And you have called out what's happening right now as the largest infrastructure build out in human history. At the center of that build out is the AI factory, and the company enabling all of that is NVIDIA.
Speaker 100:00 - 00:32
非常感谢,Jensen。我们正处在一场大规模的 AI 革命之中。它很可能比工业革命还要更宏大、推进得更快。而你曾指出,当前正在发生的是人类历史上规模最大的基础设施建设。在这场建设的中心,就是 AI factory,而让这一切成为可能的公司就是 NVIDIA。
Speaker 100:33 - 00:40
Can you tell us what is an AI factory, and why is it the best investment for any enterprise in the next decade?
Speaker 100:33 - 00:40
你能告诉我们,什么是 AI factory,为什么它会是未来十年任何企业最值得做的投资吗?
Speaker 200:42 - 00:59
Okay, so you understand AI in a particular number of ways. The way that you understand AI probably most is through a chat bot, through a web browser. You're interacting with it. You give it a prompt. It says something back to you.
Speaker 200:42 - 00:59
好的,你可以从几种特定的方式来理解 AI。你最常接触、也最熟悉的 AI 形式,很可能就是通过 chat bot、通过 web browser 来使用它。你在和它交互。你给它一个 prompt,它再回应你一些内容。
Speaker 201:00 - 01:32
And even those of you who have been using AI for some time, you've seen in the last couple, two, three years a very significant evolution improvement in the capabilities of AI. Two years ago you heard about ChatGPT. And ChatGPT basically is a computer software that understands the input you give it. It can perceive, understand information. And it can translate and generate the information into something else.
Speaker 201:00 - 01:32
即便是那些已经使用 AI 有一段时间的人,你们也已经看到,在过去这两三年里,AI 的能力发生了非常显著的演进和提升。两年前你听说了 ChatGPT。ChatGPT 本质上是一种 computer software,它能够理解你输入给它的内容。它可以感知、理解信息,也可以把这些信息翻译并生成成另一种形式。
Speaker 201:33 - 01:48
Okay, so you can give it a prompt and you can say, here's this PDF I gave you. I would like you now to summarize it. It went from text to text. You could also tell it, here's a PDF I gave you. I would like you to now generate an image of that story.
Speaker 201:33 - 01:48
好的,所以你可以给它一个 prompt,对它说,这是我给你的这个 PDF。我现在希望你把它总结一下。这样它就是从 text 到 text。你也可以对它说,这是我给你的一个 PDF。我现在希望你根据这个故事生成一张图像。
Speaker 201:48 - 02:02
It goes text to image. You could use go from image to text, meaning you could give it a picture and what's happening inside this picture? It goes image to text. Does that make sense? Anything to anything else.
Speaker 201:48 - 02:02
它就是从 text 到 image。你也可以让它从 image 到 text,也就是说,你可以给它一张图片,然后问,这张图片里发生了什么?它会从 image 到 text。这样讲明白吗?就是任何东西到任何别的东西。
Speaker 202:02 - 02:28
And AI in two years ago was largely able to do this translation. We call it generation. Generative models. Generative AI. But the thing that is very big deal inside that word generative AI is in order to do something even more valuable than generation, understanding and generating, is thinking.
Speaker 202:02 - 02:28
而两年前的 AI,主要已经能够完成这种翻译。我们把它叫作 generation。Generative models。Generative AI。但在 generative AI 这个词里面,真正非常重要的一点是:如果要做出比 generation、比理解和生成更有价值的事情,那就是 thinking。
Speaker 202:28 - 02:55
Well, you can't think if you don't generate words. And so the foundation of generative AI gave us the ability to generate internal thoughts. Thinking, reasoning, step by step reasoning, problem solving. It also allowed us to do another thing that is now very important which is generate intelligence to control something else. To generate control to use a tool.
Speaker 202:28 - 02:55
如果你不能生成词语,你就无法思考。因此,generative AI 的基础赋予了我们生成内部思维的能力。也就是 thinking、reasoning、step by step reasoning、problem solving。它还让我们能够做到另一件如今非常重要的事,那就是生成 intelligence 去控制别的东西,生成 control 去使用一个 tool。
Speaker 202:55 - 03:19
Does it make sense? To use a browser, use a spreadsheet, use Photoshop, use PowerPoint, use something, use AutoCAD, use another tool. Now, that tool today is digital, but someday that tool will be mechanical. So if I generate a command to a mechanical system, that would be called robotics. If I generate commands for a machine with steering wheel, that would be called self driving cars.
Speaker 202:55 - 03:19
这有道理吗?使用 browser,使用 spreadsheet,使用 Photoshop,使用 PowerPoint,使用某种东西,使用 AutoCAD,使用另一种工具。今天,这种工具是数字化的,但将来这种工具会是机械的。所以,如果我向一个机械系统生成 command(指令),那就会被称为 robotics。如果我向一台带 steering wheel(方向盘)的机器生成 commands,那就会被称为 self driving cars。
Speaker 203:20 - 03:30
Does that make sense? Okay. And so two years ago, in fact, you saw the foundations. We call it ChatGPT. And everybody said, ah, it's fun.
Speaker 203:20 - 03:30
这说得通吗?好。事实上,两年前,你们就已经看到了它的基础。我们称之为 ChatGPT。然后所有人都说,啊,这挺有趣。
Speaker 203:30 - 03:53
It's silly, or it produced a whole bunch of crazy, hallucinated text. That's all true, but it was the foundational technology that led to all of this. Two years later, we now have agentic systems. Now, that's one view of AI. I just described the view, which is what can AI do?
Speaker 203:30 - 03:53
它很傻,或者它会产出一大堆疯狂的、hallucinated text(幻觉文本)。这些都是真的,但正是这项基础性技术引出了后面的这一切。两年之后,我们现在有了 agentic systems。现在,这是看待 AI 的一种方式。我刚才描述的是这样一种视角:AI 能做什么?
Speaker 203:53 - 04:22
Right? And so now all of you realize you see it from ChatGPT, you see it from Codecs, you see it from Cloud Code, you see that it's now able to not just understand, but it's able to do work. Reason and do work. Now, two years ago, when AI was able to understand you and generate information that was interesting, novel, a little cute. Whenever you need a poem written, great way to do it.
Speaker 203:53 - 04:22
对吧?所以现在你们所有人都意识到了,你们从 ChatGPT 上看到了,从 Codecs 上看到了,从 Cloud Code 上看到了,你们看到它现在不仅能够理解,而且能够做工作。能够推理并做工作。而在两年前,当 AI 还只是能够理解你、生成一些有趣的、新颖的、稍微有点可爱的内容时——如果你想写一首诗,那倒是个很好的方式。
Speaker 204:22 - 04:48
Right? Who doesn't want to write a country song? And so that was two years ago, but now because it's able to do work, AI is valuable. Valuable meaning it can generate information, it can generate useful work, and it can be paid for it. Because we pay for, we're interested in having friends that are smart, we love people who are know it alls, but we don't pay them for it.
Speaker 204:22 - 04:48
对吧?谁不想写一首 country song 呢?所以那是两年前,但现在,因为它能够做工作,AI 就有价值了。所谓有价值,意思是它可以生成信息,可以产出有用的工作成果,而且人们可以为此付费。因为我们会为做工作付费;我们当然也愿意有聪明的朋友,我们也喜欢那种什么都懂的人,但我们不会因为这一点给他们付钱。
Speaker 204:48 - 05:07
We pay for people who do work. Does that make sense? Alright, which is what happened in the last two years. AI went from having this capability to now AgenTek went from not very valuable to now producing useful work. So much useful work that you and I are doing this every day, we're paying AI by the hour.
Speaker 204:48 - 05:07
我们付钱给的是那些做工作的人。这样说有道理吗?好,这就是过去两年里发生的事情。AI 从拥有这种能力,发展到现在——AgenTek 从不是很有价值,变成了现在能够产出有用的工作。多到什么程度?就是你和我每天都在这样做:我们按小时向 AI 付费。
Speaker 205:08 - 05:23
Right? And so we might pay them $30 an hour to do the work, 20 an hour to do the work. We're basically paying AI a lot of money today. The fastest growing software business in the history of mankind. Because now it's doing useful work and we can pay them to do it.
Speaker 205:08 - 05:23
对吧?所以我们可能付它们每小时 30 美元来做这项工作,或者每小时 20 美元来做这项工作。基本上,今天我们正在给 AI 支付很多钱。这是人类历史上增长最快的软件业务。因为它现在在做有用的工作,而我们可以付钱让它去做。
Speaker 205:23 - 05:55
Now, that's one view of AI, which is what it can do. But one other view of AI that's really important to help reason through what Constantine is saying. So, example, the reason why some companies, some people are able to build great businesses and could maneuver themselves into the center of very large industries is because when they see this capability, this is very interesting. One interesting thought is if we're able to do this, what is the implication to this downstream industries? That's an interesting conversation we should have.
Speaker 205:23 - 05:55
现在,这是看待 AI 的一种方式,也就是看它能做什么。但看待 AI 的另一种方式也非常重要,它有助于我们理解 Constantine 正在说的内容。举个例子,为什么有些公司、有些人能够建立伟大的 business,并把自己 maneuver 到非常大型产业的中心位置?是因为当他们看到这种能力时,会觉得这非常有意思。一个很有意思的想法是:如果我们能够做到这一点,那么它对下游产业会带来什么 implication(影响)?这是一个我们应该展开讨论的有趣话题。
Speaker 205:55 - 06:23
Okay? So now that AI can do this, what happens to all the industries like healthcare and financial services, and life sciences, manufacturing, logistics, transportation, on and on and on. E tail, advertising, future entertainment, the conversations list you can have about now that AI can do this, what can it do as a result subsequently? That's an interesting conversation. But you should go upstream, meaning industrially, what does that mean?
Speaker 205:55 - 06:23
好吗?所以,既然 AI 现在能做到这一点,那么 healthcare、financial services、life sciences、manufacturing、logistics、transportation 等等这些行业会发生什么?还有 retail、advertising、future entertainment。现在你可以围绕“既然 AI 能做到这一点,那么接下来它因此还能做什么”展开一长串讨论。这是个很有意思的话题。但你应该往更上游看,也就是从产业层面看,这意味着什么?
Speaker 206:23 - 06:46
And so the first thing you realize is this. Go back to first principles. I told you just now that AI is software and is being produced by a computer. Now, what happened to the computer that has made it possible to do this? Well, the big idea is, you think about the computer as we know it today, it really emerged about sixty four years ago.
Speaker 206:23 - 06:46
所以你首先会意识到的是这一点:回到 first principles(第一性原理)。我刚才告诉你,AI 是 software,而且是由 computer 生成出来的。那么,computer 究竟发生了什么变化,才让它有可能做到这些?大的思路是,如果你去看我们今天所熟悉的 computer,它其实大约是在 64 年前真正成形的。
Speaker 206:46 - 07:13
IBM System March was the biggest announcement of computing and sixty four years ago IBM was the most valuable company in the world. And they created the modern understanding of computers. Everything that we can describe about computer was really described in 1964. For forty years, largely has remained the same. And what happened was that form of computing is called pre recording.
Speaker 206:46 - 07:13
IBM System March 是 computing 领域最重大的发布,而在 64 年前,IBM 是全世界市值最高的公司。他们建立了现代人对 computer 的理解。我们今天能描述的几乎所有关于 computer 的东西,其实在 1964 年就已经被描述出来了。此后 40 年,基本上都没有太大变化。而发生的是,这种 computing 形式被称为 pre recording。
Speaker 207:14 - 07:33
You write down your story, you save it to a file. You write a program by hand, you save it to a file. You take a picture, you save it to a file, you record music, you save it to a file, you make a video right now, we're streaming right now, but somebody's going to record it, you're going to save it to a file. And when you want to use it later, you retrieve it from the disk drive. Does that make sense?
Speaker 207:14 - 07:33
你把自己的故事写下来,保存成一个 file。你手工写一个 program,保存成一个 file。你拍一张照片,保存成一个 file;你录一段音乐,保存成一个 file;你现在制作一段视频,我们此刻正在 streaming,但总会有人把它录下来,再保存成一个 file。而当你之后想使用它时,你就把它从 disk drive 里取出来。这样说有道理吗?
Speaker 207:33 - 07:53
And the retrieval process is done intelligently. So that's why everybody's retrieval of a news story is a little bit different. It's called a recommender system. But basically, computers as we know it today is a retrieval based system, which is the reason why these buildings are called data centers. They store data.
Speaker 207:33 - 07:53
而这个 retrieval(检索)过程是以一种智能方式完成的。所以每个人看到的新闻故事检索结果都会有一点不同,这就叫 recommender system(推荐系统)。但基本上,我们今天所知道的 computer 是一种基于 retrieval 的系统,这也是为什么这些大楼被叫作 data centers。它们存储的是 data。
Speaker 207:54 - 08:34
Notice they don't call them computer centers because it's not doing much computing. They just store data that you retrieve based on what you touch on your phone. Well, what happened now, if you look at what I just described, in order for this AI to work as I described it, every time I say something to it, I have to give it new information, we call it context. I give it a new prompt, that's called a query. Between the context and the query, it will understand it first, reason about it and it will produce an output based on that context in that query, based on the circumstance.
Speaker 207:54 - 08:34
注意,它们不叫 computer centers,因为它其实并没有做太多 computing。它们只是存储 data,而你根据自己在 phone 上点了什么把它取出来。那么现在发生了什么?如果你看我刚才描述的内容,为了让这种 AI 按我所说的方式工作,每次我对它说话时,我都必须给它新的信息,我们把这叫作 context(上下文)。我给它一个新的 prompt,这叫作 query(查询)。在 context 和 query 之间,它会先理解,再进行推理,然后基于那个 context、那个 query,以及当下的具体情境,产出一个 output。
Speaker 208:34 - 09:01
Does that make sense so far? Okay, give me one nod, okay? And so, if that is the case, every time you use the AI, the content is produced originally every single time. Everything I'm saying to you right now is being produced in real time. And it's because my explanation is based on the fact that I realize all of you come from 60 different countries, 128 different families.
Speaker 208:34 - 09:01
到目前为止明白吗?好,给我点个头,好吗?所以,如果情况确实如此,那么每一次你使用 AI 时,内容都是每一次重新原创生成的。我现在对你们说的每一句话,都是实时生成的。之所以如此,是因为我的解释建立在这样一个事实上:我意识到你们所有人来自 60 个不同的国家、128 个不同的家庭。
Speaker 209:02 - 09:19
You all have many different backgrounds. Some of you probably came from the computer industry. Most of you probably did not. And so I'm explaining the information to you in a way that is sufficiently deep. But ultimately my goal is this, so that you know how to make your next investment.
Speaker 209:02 - 09:19
你们每个人的背景都很不一样。你们当中有些人可能来自 computer 行业,但大多数人可能不是。所以我在向你们解释这些信息时,会用一种足够深入的方式。但归根结底,我的目标是这个:让你知道该如何做出你的下一笔 investment(投资)。
Speaker 209:20 - 09:42
That's what I'm leading to and so I'm going to give you enough sufficient information that you can reason about it for yourself so that when you see something in the next time you go, that's worth investing in. That's going to be a big industry. That's $100,000,000,000 right now and it looks really big, but that's nothing compared to how big it's going to be. I'm going to give you the intuition to solve that problem. And so here we are.
Speaker 209:20 - 09:42
我想引出的就是这一点,所以我会给你足够充分的信息,让你能自己去推理;这样下次你再看到某样东西时,就能判断它是否值得投资。这将会是一个巨大的行业。它现在就是一个价值 $100,000,000,000 的市场,而且看起来已经非常大了,但和它未来会变得多大相比,这根本不算什么。我会给你解决这个问题所需的直觉理解。好,我们开始。
Speaker 209:43 - 10:01
Went from a computer industry that was largely based on retrieval for sixty years and all of a sudden, one day, it's completely generated in real time. We call it intelligence. This is what I'm doing right now for you. I'm demonstrating intelligence. Contextual awareness, he gave me a prompt and here comes my answer.
Speaker 209:43 - 10:01
我们从一个六十年来基本建立在 retrieval(检索)之上的计算机产业,突然在某一天,变成了完全实时生成的系统。我们把这叫作 intelligence(智能)。我现在正在为你做的,就是这个。我正在演示 intelligence。具备 contextual awareness(上下文感知):他给了我一个 prompt(提示词),我的回答就随之生成出来了。
Speaker 210:01 - 10:15
Does it make sense? Extremely artificial intelligence. Okay? So here, what's going on now? I just gave you one word earlier.
Speaker 210:01 - 10:15
这样讲得通吗?这就是极其典型的 artificial intelligence(人工智能),对吧?那么,这里现在发生了什么?我刚才其实已经先给了你一个词。
Speaker 210:15 - 10:53
It's called generative The the computer of today has been completely reinvented. It's now generative and every single toe, every single letter you see, every single word you see in your in the future, every video, every image, every ad, every TV commercial, every single time you read a story, a news story, every one of them will be different. What Constantine sees, what I see, what you see will be completely different because it'll be generated for you. Because your interest, your context, who you are, for what reason you asked, how you asked is completely different. Does it make sense?
Speaker 210:15 - 10:53
它叫 generative(生成式)。今天的计算机已经被彻底重塑了。它现在是 generative 的;未来你看到的每一个符号、每一个字母、每一个词,你将看到的每一段视频、每一张图像、每一则广告、每一条电视广告、每一次你读到的故事、新闻报道,都会彼此不同。Constantine 看到的、我看到的、你看到的,将会完全不同,因为它们会是专门为你生成的。因为你的兴趣、你的上下文、你是谁、你提问的目的、你提问的方式,全都不一样。这样讲得通吗?
Speaker 210:53 - 11:19
And so therefore, therefore, every single pixel that you see, every single sound that you hear in the future, every video you see in the future will be originally generated, not retrieved. Which means in the future we need a lot more generators. And these generators is what we build. That's what we build for a living. These are large computers and they're generating intelligence.
Speaker 210:53 - 11:19
因此,未来你看到的每一个 pixel(像素)、听到的每一个声音、看到的每一段视频,都将是原生生成的,而不是检索出来的。这意味着未来我们需要多得多的 generators(生成器)。而这些 generators 正是我们在建造的东西。这就是我们的业务。它们是大型计算机,而它们正在生成 intelligence。
Speaker 211:20 - 11:45
Now the next question is this. Well, how big could it be? How big can it be? And so it turns out, the amount of information, the amount of generation of intelligence, we do it for about a billion people in the world today. Now that I told you that AI has become agentic, meaning that it can actually do work by itself.
Speaker 211:20 - 11:45
现在下一个问题是:它能大到什么程度?它到底能有多大?结果是,信息的规模、智能生成的规模,今天大约是为全球十亿人提供服务。现在我已经告诉你,AI 已经变得 agentic(具备 agent 自主行动能力),也就是说,它实际上可以自己完成工作。
Speaker 211:46 - 12:20
Well, if it can do work by itself, then one agent can communicate with another agent and say, I have some work to do, let's team up together and let's do some work. And now you have all these different agents and they're all working together to solve problems inside your company, say. So inside our company, Constantine knows that we're huge users of AgenTik AI. We have hundreds of thousands of agents probably running around right now that are doing work and they're talking to each other and they're solving problems. All guardrailed, all sandboxed, all guardrailed and sandboxed, but they're all working with each other.
Speaker 211:46 - 12:20
如果它能自己完成工作,那么一个 agent 就可以和另一个 agent 沟通,说:我这边有些工作要做,我们组队,一起来完成一些任务。这样一来,你就会有各种不同的 agents,它们在你的公司内部协同工作、解决问题。比如在我们公司内部,Constantine 知道我们是 AgenTik AI 的重度用户。现在大概有数十万个 agents 正在到处运行、执行工作;它们彼此交流,也在解决问题。全部都有 guardrails(护栏机制),全部都运行在 sandbox(沙箱)里,所有这些 agent 都受 guardrails 和 sandbox 约束,但它们彼此之间都在协同工作。
Speaker 212:20 - 12:51
Which means in the future it is very likely that the internet that we use today for a billion people will likely mostly be several billion, call it a 100,000,000,000 agents working around the clock and they're using the internet and talking to each other. And what are they saying? So for example, there'll be companies working with companies, employees' agents working with other employees' agents. There'll be self driving cars, which are agentic. There will be robots, which are agentic.
Speaker 212:20 - 12:51
这意味着,未来我们今天这个为十亿人服务的互联网,很可能主要会变成一个服务于数十亿、甚至可以说是 100,000,000,000 个 agents 的网络;它们全天候运转,使用互联网,并彼此交谈。那它们在说什么呢?比如说,会有公司和公司协作,员工的 agents 和其他员工的 agents 协作。还会有自动驾驶汽车,它们是 agentic 的。还会有机器人,它们也是 agentic 的。
Speaker 212:51 - 13:09
All the manufacturing systems, every building will be agentic. There will be agents all over the place, they'll be using the internet. And all of those commands that they generate to each other will be generated. All of the thoughts that they have to understand, all generated. Does that make sense?
Speaker 212:51 - 13:09
所有制造系统、每一栋建筑,都会变得 agentic。到处都会有 agent,它们会使用互联网。而它们彼此生成的所有这些指令,都会是生成出来的。它们为了理解而产生的所有思考,也都会是生成出来的。这样说有道理吗?
Speaker 213:09 - 13:35
And so basically the world is going to be this layer of computing that's going to cocoon the earth and it's going to be generating intelligence all the time. Now I just said something that sounds ridiculous. Except, in fact it's already happened. Twice. So three hundred years ago, a company in Germany called Siemens produced a machine.
Speaker 213:09 - 13:35
所以基本上,这个世界将会变成一层计算层,像茧一样包裹地球,并且会一直不断地产生 intelligence(智能)。我刚才说的这句话听起来很荒唐。但事实上,这种事已经发生过了。两次。大约三百年前,Germany 有一家叫 Siemens 的公司造出了一台机器。
Speaker 213:35 - 13:51
And this machine is a really interesting machine. You go up to this machine, you light it on fire. And then this incredible invisible force comes out the other end. Nobody understood what it was. We understand it now as electricity.
Speaker 213:35 - 13:51
这台机器非常有意思。你走到这台机器前,把它点燃。然后另一端就会出来一种不可思议的、看不见的力量。当时没人理解那是什么。现在我们知道,那就是 electricity(电)。
Speaker 213:52 - 14:16
How many power generators are there in the world? We call it a grid. Power generation cocoons the planet. We call it the grid. And then of course, twenty some odd years ago, earlier than that, thirty five years ago, this networking scheme, networking matrix fabric was created here in The United States, eventually became the internet.
Speaker 213:52 - 14:16
世界上有多少发电机?我们把它叫作 grid(电网)。发电系统像茧一样包裹着整个星球。我们称之为 grid。当然,二十多年前,或者更早一点,三十五年前,这种 networking scheme(网络化方案)、networking matrix fabric(网络矩阵结构)在 The United States 被创造出来,最终变成了 internet。
Speaker 214:16 - 14:31
And where is it? It cocoons the world. And so now you have energy, communications, intelligence, and it will cocoon the world. And it'll just be a commodity, we'll use it all over the place. And so what NVIDIA does for a living is this new machine.
Speaker 214:16 - 14:31
那它在哪里?它包裹着整个世界。所以现在你有了 energy(能源)、communications(通信),以及 intelligence,而 intelligence 也将包裹世界。它会变成一种 commodity(基础性商品),我们会在各处使用它。而 NVIDIA 所从事的,就是这种新的机器。
Speaker 214:32 - 14:56
The machine that was invented three hundred years ago is called the Dynamo. That Dynamo, anything that moves comes in. It could be waterfalls, it could be wind, fire, steam. Transfer it from motion, atoms, right, to electrons. Atoms to electrons.
Speaker 214:32 - 14:56
三百年前发明的那台机器叫作 Dynamo。那个 Dynamo,任何运动的东西都可以送进去。可以是瀑布,可以是风、火、蒸汽。把它从 motion(运动)、atoms(原子)转换成 electrons(电子)。从 atoms 到 electrons。
Speaker 214:57 - 15:25
We then take the electrons into our machine called NVIDIA. Electrons now comes into our machine, comes in this factory, and what comes out are numbers. These numbers, depending on how you combine them, turns into language, math. It can also turn into a new language we've learned, proteins. We learned the the language of human biology.
Speaker 214:57 - 15:25
然后我们把 electrons 送进我们的机器——NVIDIA。electrons 进入我们的机器,进入这座工厂,输出的是 numbers(数字)。这些数字,取决于你如何组合它们,会变成 language(语言)、math(数学)。它也可以变成我们新近学会的一种语言——proteins(蛋白质)。我们学会了 human biology(人类生物学)的语言。
Speaker 215:26 - 16:10
We learned the language of the physical world, physics, climate, weather. We learned the language of the three d world, robotics, self driving cars. We learned the language of all kinds of different forms of intelligence. But the point being, now, these two machines, three hundred years apart, atoms in, electrons out, electrons in, numbers out, and those numbers could be rejiggered, reformulated into all kinds of different intelligence. That's what we built, that's what we do for a living, and that's why I call it a factory because it's producing, we call them tokens but they're just numbers, tokens and these tokens are intelligence.
Speaker 215:26 - 16:10
我们学会了 physical world(物理世界)的语言——physics(物理)、climate(气候)、weather(天气)。我们学会了 three d world(三维世界)的语言——robotics(机器人)、self driving cars(自动驾驶汽车)。我们学会了各种不同形式的 intelligence 的语言。但重点是,现在,这两台相隔三百年的机器,一台是 atoms 进去、electrons 出来;另一台是 electrons 进去、numbers 出来。而这些 numbers 可以被重新调整、重新构造,变成各种不同的 intelligence。这就是我们建造的东西,这就是我们的工作,这也是为什么我称它为工厂,因为它在持续生产——我们称之为 tokens,但它们其实就是数字,tokens,而这些 tokens 就是 intelligence。
Speaker 216:10 - 16:30
That's it. That's what we do. It's not that hard. Brilliant. Now you know what AI's for, and now you know how AI's built, and how big it's gonna be.
Speaker 216:10 - 16:30
就是这样。这就是我们所做的事。并没有那么难。很精彩。现在你知道 AI 是干什么的了,也知道 AI 是如何构建的,以及它将会有多么庞大。
Speaker 116:31 - 16:32
Thank you all for joining today.
Speaker 116:31 - 16:32
感谢大家今天的参与。
Speaker 216:32 - 16:36
Thank you. Good job. Excellent question. I
Speaker 216:32 - 16:36
谢谢。做得好。这个问题非常好。我——
Speaker 116:39 - 16:45
I really felt that carried it. You know, the prompt. You laid it up. Yeah. Okay.
Speaker 116:39 - 16:45
我真的觉得是那个把它撑起来了。你知道的,prompt(提示词)。是你把它铺垫出来的。对。好。
Speaker 116:45 - 17:08
So this is a massive revolution. Yeah. And you you laid out three transformations. Energy transformation, which touches everyone today, and a lot of the people in the audience are part of these manufacturing and energy producers globally, telecommunications, which connects all of us, and now intelligence. And in energy, you talked about the generator, telecommunications.
Speaker 116:45 - 17:08
所以这是一场巨大的革命。对。而且你概括了三场变革。能源变革,它今天影响着每一个人,现场很多观众也都参与全球这些制造业和能源生产;电信,它把我们所有人连接起来;而现在是智能。在能源领域,你谈到了发电机;在电信领域——
Speaker 117:08 - 17:26
I guess the comparable would be the switch or something along those lines for routing communications globally. And now in the intelligence revolution, it's the GPU at the core. And the AI factory like the h 100 or any of the new systems that bring everything you need under the same hood, Vera Rubin, what happens.
Speaker 117:08 - 17:26
我想可对应的东西大概是交换机之类的,用来在全球范围内路由通信。而现在,在智能革命中,处于核心的是 GPU。以及 AI factory(AI 工厂),比如 h 100,或者任何把你所需一切都整合到同一套体系中的新系统,Vera Rubin,会发生什么。
Speaker 217:26 - 17:53
These factories, so you know, these generators, each one of our units, we call it a rack, there's 72 chips inside. We manufacture, call it 8,000,000 of them this year. But 72 of them go into a rack. That rack weighs two tons. It is $4,000,000.
Speaker 217:26 - 17:53
这些工厂,所以你知道,这些发电机,我们的每一个单元都叫作一个 rack(机架),里面有 72 个 chip(芯片)。我们今年制造——怎么说呢——800 万个这样的芯片。但其中 72 个会装进一个机架。那个机架重达两吨。价值 400 万美元。
Speaker 217:54 - 18:14
Has one and a half million parts and it's the most expensive piece of equipment in the world. And we manufacture them like, I guess it would be like phones. I mean we crank them out And they go into data centers all over the world. We build these machines in volume.
Speaker 217:54 - 18:14
它有 150 万个零部件,是世界上最昂贵的设备。我们制造它们的方式,我想,大概就像造手机一样。我的意思是,我们把它们大批量生产出来,然后送往世界各地的数据中心。我们是按规模来制造这些机器的。
Speaker 118:16 - 18:22
They are big devices. This is how you do your weight lifting. I understand.
Speaker 118:16 - 18:22
它们是很大的设备。这就是你进行举重训练的方式。我明白了。
Speaker 218:22 - 18:23
No volume discounts.
Speaker 218:22 - 18:23
没有批量折扣。
Speaker 118:27 - 18:30
Okay. So you laid out this picture of a very exciting world
Speaker 118:27 - 18:30
好的。所以你描绘了一幅非常令人兴奋的世界图景,
Speaker 218:30 - 18:31
Mhmm.
Speaker 218:30 - 18:31
嗯。
Speaker 118:31 - 18:34
That we are in. We're in the middle of this revolution.
Speaker 118:31 - 18:34
而我们就身处其中。我们正处在这场革命的中间。
Speaker 218:34 - 18:34
We're Yeah.
Speaker 218:34 - 18:34
我们——对。
Speaker 118:34 - 18:37
You could say decades in, you could say years in.
Speaker 118:34 - 18:37
你可以说这已经进行了几十年,也可以说进行了几年。
Speaker 218:37 - 18:37
Yeah.
Speaker 218:37 - 18:37
对。
Speaker 118:37 - 18:48
Certainly now in the the mainstream of the intelligence revolution. How do we participate? I'm sure everybody here wants to participate in this revolution.
Speaker 118:37 - 18:48
可以肯定的是,现在它已经进入 intelligence revolution(智能革命)的主流。我们该如何参与?我相信这里的每个人都想参与这场革命。
Speaker 218:48 - 18:49
Yeah. Excellent question.
Speaker 218:48 - 18:49
对。这个问题非常好。
Speaker 118:49 - 18:56
Let's start with big enterprises, and then let's get to individuals as well. Yep. How do people join this movement?
Speaker 118:49 - 18:56
我们先从大型企业讲起,然后也会谈到个人。对。人们要怎样加入这场运动呢?
Speaker 218:56 - 19:10
And so now I gave you two mental models. I'm gonna give you one more mental model. So so one mental model, they're they're really you know, we could talk about this story, hopefully, we cover all four phases. I just talked about what AI can do. I talked about how AI is made.
Speaker 218:56 - 19:10
所以现在我给了你两个 mental model(思维模型)。我再给你一个 mental model(思维模型)。所以,一个 mental model(思维模型)是——它们其实,你知道,我们可以围绕这个故事来讲,希望我们能把四个阶段都覆盖到。我刚刚讲了 AI 能做什么。我也讲了 AI 是如何被制造出来的。
Speaker 219:11 - 19:35
And these things are in these factories. These factories are each gigawatt is about $50,000,000,000 So have you ever seen it's the most expensive factory in the world. But also, that 1 $50,000,000,000 factory also generates $300 $400,000,000,000 in intelligence. And so the production value is incredible. The return on investment is extremely fast.
Speaker 219:11 - 19:35
而这些东西都在这些工厂里。这些工厂中,每 1 gigawatt 的规模大约就是 $50,000,000,000。你见过吗?这可能是世界上最昂贵的工厂。但同时,这样一座价值 $50,000,000,000 的工厂,也能产出 $300 到 $400,000,000,000 的 intelligence(智能)。所以它的产出价值惊人,投资回报速度也非常快。
Speaker 219:35 - 19:57
And so that's the factory part. The part that I'm going to tell you now, and this is very important when you think about investment, is what does the industrial layout look like for AI? And the way to think about the industrial view is think of it as a five layer cake. Now, told you on the bottom is energy. The bottom is, remember I said the dynamo, Okay?
Speaker 219:35 - 19:57
这就是工厂的部分。接下来我要讲的这一部分,在你思考 investment(投资)时非常重要,那就是:AI 的 industrial layout(产业布局)看起来是什么样?理解这个产业视角的方式,就是把它想象成一个五层蛋糕。现在,我告诉过你,最底层是 energy(能源)。最底层就是——记得我说过的 dynamo(发电机)吧?好吧?
Speaker 219:57 - 20:22
Now we have, of course, different AC generators and things like that, power generation. And so on the lowest layer is energy. This is the single greatest opportunity in several generations for the energy industries to grow. The very first time in probably, I don't know, one hundred years since the energy grid in many countries could be invested in. This is the best opportunity to invest in sustainable energy.
Speaker 219:57 - 20:22
现在我们当然有不同的 AC generators(交流发电机)之类的东西,也就是发电设备。因此,最底层就是 energy(能源)。这是几代人以来,能源产业所面临的最大增长机会。很可能是大约一百年来第一次——许多国家的 energy grid(电网)再次成为值得投资的对象。这也是投资 sustainable energy(可持续能源)的最佳机会。
Speaker 220:22 - 20:51
If you care about sustainable energy, nuclear, air, or wind, solar, you name it, whatever form, hydrogen, whatever form, so long as it produces energy, it's going to get funded. And so that tells you something about how great of a time this is because we have a trillion dollars. Just think, this year alone, we're going to put a trillion dollars from the market into this entire five layer cake I'm about to describe to you. So the first layer is energy. That's the reason why Siemens is doing so well.
Speaker 220:22 - 20:51
如果你关心 sustainable energy(可持续能源),无论是 nuclear(核能)、air、wind(风能)、solar(太阳能),随你说得出什么,或者 hydrogen(氢能),不管是哪种形式,只要它能生产能源,就会得到资金支持。所以这也说明了现在是多么了不起的一个时点,因为我们有一万亿美元。你想想看,仅仅今年一年,市场就会向我接下来要描述的整个五层蛋糕投入一万亿美元。所以第一层是 energy(能源)。这也就是为什么 Siemens 表现这么好。
Speaker 220:51 - 21:04
Mitsubishi is doing fantastically. GE, Vernova. I mean everybody. The first layer of the cake is energy. The second layer of the cake is chips and computers and networking and switches and silicon photonics.
Speaker 220:51 - 21:04
Mitsubishi 的表现也非常出色。GE、Vernova。我是说,几乎所有人都是这样。蛋糕的第一层是 energy(能源)。蛋糕的第二层是 chips(芯片)、computers(计算机)、networking(网络)、switches(交换设备)以及 silicon photonics(硅光子)。
Speaker 221:04 - 21:21
Does that make sense? It's all the computers. The third layer of the cake, we call it infrastructure. Land, power, shell, money, data center operations. Every one of them in scarce supply today.
Speaker 221:04 - 21:21
这样讲清楚吗?这一层基本上就是所有的计算机相关部分。蛋糕的第三层,我们称之为 infrastructure(基础设施):土地、电力、机房外壳、资金、data center operations(数据中心运营)。而这些东西,如今每一样都处于稀缺状态。
Speaker 221:21 - 21:34
And so that's the next layer, is infrastructure layer. And then the layer that everybody sees, that everybody thinks is AI, is the model layer. Does it make sense? That's the next layer. It sits on top of the computers, cloud infrastructure.
Speaker 221:21 - 21:34
所以下一层就是 infrastructure layer(基础设施层)。然后,大家都看得见、也都以为那就是 AI 的那一层,是 model layer(模型层)。这样讲有道理吗?这就是再往上的一层。它建立在 computers、cloud infrastructure(云基础设施)之上。
Speaker 221:34 - 21:55
And this is the greatest opportunity in recent human history that I know that so much market driven investment is naturally coming into the ecosystem. This is a great time to build. And so now that's the model layer. The model layer is OpenAI, it's anthropic, but this is the part that you can't overlook. This is very important.
Speaker 221:34 - 21:55
在我所知的近代人类历史中,这是一个最巨大的机会:如此大量由市场驱动的投资,正自然而然地流入这个 ecosystem(生态系统)。这是一个非常适合 build(构建、创业)的时期。现在说回 model layer。model layer 包括 OpenAI、anthropic,但还有一个部分你绝不能忽视。这一点非常重要。
Speaker 221:55 - 22:21
So you have two companies that you know of, that you hear about. However, don't forget AI as I was explaining earlier has learned the language. It learns the language and the meaning. Language, the meaning of anything that is structural. So that layer, what's really important is that we hear, we talk about all the language, but don't forget, you can learn anything with structure.
Speaker 221:55 - 22:21
所以你知道、也经常听说的,可能就是那两家公司。不过别忘了,正如我前面解释过的,AI 已经学会了 language(语言)。它学习 language,也学习 meaning(意义)。语言,以及任何具有 structure(结构)的事物所承载的意义。所以,那一层真正重要的地方在于:我们总是在听、在谈 language,但别忘了,任何有 structure 的东西都可以被学习。
Speaker 222:22 - 22:50
And so let me give you an example of something with structure. Today, when I walked into a room, I was explaining a lot of people and it wasn't unexpected the way you appeared. Now, if some of you were hanging off the ceiling and floating in mid air and some of you, the one human but body parts in 17 different places and I could see through some of you then it's hard to learn that because every time it's different. Okay. Because it's hard to learn quantum things.
Speaker 222:22 - 22:50
我来举一个有 structure 的东西作为例子。今天,当我走进一个房间时,我向很多人解释过,你们出现的方式并不令人意外。现在,如果你们当中有些人挂在天花板上、漂浮在半空中,还有一些人虽然是一个 human(人),但身体部位分散在 17 个不同的地方,甚至我还能透过你们看到后面,那就很难学习了,因为每一次都不一样。明白吗?因为 quantum(量子)那样的东西很难学习。
Speaker 222:50 - 23:16
However, things with structure we can learn, right? People have eyes and so you can learn these things, okay? And so, three d, I learned the laws of physics, I sat down and notice, I sat down with confidence. I 53% of the time I landed safely on the chair, the other 47% of the time I went right through it. And so I can't trust it but 100% of the time.
Speaker 222:50 - 23:16
但是,有 structure 的东西我们是可以学习的,对吧?人都有眼睛,所以这些东西是可以学会的,好吗?再比如在 three d(3D)世界里,我学到了 laws of physics(物理定律),我坐下时会注意,而且我是带着信心坐下的。结果有 53% 的时候我安全地落在椅子上,另外 47% 的时候我直接穿过去了。那我就不可能 100% 地信任这件事。
Speaker 223:16 - 23:39
Do you guys understand? And so if things are predictable, then there's structure you can learn from it and you can learn the meaning of it, okay? And so we learned the meaning of proteins, we're learning the meaning of genes, not just sequencing it, not just CRISPR editing it, but what is the meaning of that gene? What is the meaning of a cell? Why does a cell do what the cell does?
Speaker 223:16 - 23:39
你们明白吗?所以,如果事物是可预测的,那么其中就有 structure,你就能从中学习,也能学到它的 meaning,好吗?所以,我们已经在学习 proteins(蛋白质)的 meaning,也在学习 genes(基因)的 meaning,不只是对它进行 sequencing(测序),不只是用 CRISPR 去 editing(编辑)它,而是:这个 gene 的 meaning 到底是什么?一个 cell(细胞)的 meaning 是什么?为什么一个 cell 会做它所做的事?
Speaker 223:39 - 23:54
What happens when two cells coming together? And so this is no different than imagine I learned the meaning of a cell the way I learned the meaning of a word. And what happens when I take two words and put them together? These two words activate each other, turn into something else of another meaning. Okay?
Speaker 223:39 - 23:54
当两个 cells 结合在一起时会发生什么?这其实没有什么不同。你可以想象一下:我学习一个 cell 的 meaning,就像我学习一个 word(词)的 meaning 一样。那当我把两个 words 放在一起时会发生什么?这两个 words 会彼此激活,变成别的东西,形成另一层 meaning。对吧?
Speaker 223:54 - 24:22
And so from a computer's perspective, it doesn't care if it's a cell, a protein, a word, an image, a car. Does that make sense? It's just tokens. And so we have to figure out, as computer scientists, we have to figure out how to represent the world's information in all these different ways so that the computer can understand it. Understand reason about it, come up with a plan, generate an action, the intelligence loop.
Speaker 223:54 - 24:22
所以从 computer 的视角来看,它并不在乎那是一个 cell、一个 protein、一个 word、一张 image,还是一辆 car。这样说有道理吗?它们都只是 tokens(标记)。因此,作为 computer scientists(计算机科学家),我们必须弄清楚,怎样用这些不同的方式来表征世界的信息,好让 computer 能理解它。理解它、对它进行 reason(推理)、制定 plan(计划)、生成 action(行动),这就是 intelligence loop(智能循环)。
Speaker 224:22 - 24:33
Protein's the same way, cell's the same way, the human anatomy's the same way. It must be predictable. It's predictable because tomorrow morning I'm largely the same. It must be predictable. Okay?
Speaker 224:22 - 24:33
Protein 也是一样,cell 也是一样,human anatomy 也是一样。它必须是可预测的。它之所以可预测,是因为到了明天早上,我基本上还是同一个我。它必须是可预测的。对吧?
Speaker 224:33 - 25:12
And so we're learning all these different. My point is there are two language models that you guys know about, but AI is a giant industry. The industry of everything else physical is about $80,000,000,000,000. It is actually the most important frontier, the parts that we're not talking about. And then on top of that, this model, this technology then feeds into all the stuff that Constantine gets to see these days, which is all of these startups that are coming up with revolutionary ideas in financial services, in legal, in accounting, in transportation, logistics.
Speaker 224:33 - 25:12
所以我们正在学习所有这些不同的东西。我的意思是,你们知道两种 language model(语言模型),但 AI 是一个巨大的产业。除此之外,一切物理世界相关产业的规模大约是 $80,000,000,000,000。实际上,最重要的前沿恰恰是那些我们还没在谈论的部分。再往上,这个 model,这项 technology(技术)又会流入 Constantine 这些天所看到的那些东西里,也就是这些不断涌现的 startups,它们在 financial services、legal、accounting、transportation、logistics 等领域提出颠覆性的想法。
Speaker 225:12 - 25:39
Isn't that right? And so that layer above, this last year, a $100,000,000,000 of venture capital investment. The single largest year of VC investment in the history of humanity. All of that money is going into that fifth layer, the top layer, which is the layer that apply applications to enhance human condition. And so there are five layers.
Speaker 225:12 - 25:39
对吧?所以更上面那一层,在过去这一年里,吸引了 $100,000,000,000 的 venture capital(风险投资)。这是人类历史上 VC 投资规模最大的一年。所有这些钱都流向了第五层,也就是最上面那一层——把 applications(应用)用来改善 human condition(人类境况)的那一层。所以总共有五层。
Speaker 225:39 - 26:17
When you think about AI and you want to invest in this future, and I promise you this future is going to be gigantic because two years ago, zero, it's approximately, we're about to put $1,000,000,000,000 in, but that's $1,000,000,000,000 out of the, you know, we're going to be putting in probably the AI industry, I'm going to guess for a second, probably something along the lines of $20,000,000,000,000 a year. We're $1,000,000,000,000 in of a $20,000,000,000,000 a year ecosystem. Because the production of intelligence, you just got to ask yourself, how important is intelligence? And who needs it? And how much of it do you want?
Speaker 225:39 - 26:17
当你思考 AI,并且想投资这个未来时——我向你保证,这个未来会大得惊人——因为两年前还是零,而现在大约,我们即将投入 $1,000,000,000,000,但这是从一个更大的整体里拿出来的,你知道,我们未来每年投入到 AI industry 的资金,我先大胆猜一下,可能会接近每年 $20,000,000,000,000。我们现在投入了 $1,000,000,000,000,面对的是一个每年 $20,000,000,000,000 的 ecosystem(生态系统)。因为 intelligence(智能)的生产,你只需要问自己:智能有多重要?谁需要它?你又想要多少?
Speaker 226:18 - 26:36
And so those are kind of the basic questions and all of that intelligence, whether it's for proteins or cars or robots or language or math, science, whatever it is, has to be generated by these machines. And so this five layer cake is the industrial version. And I think that's a good way to think about where to invest.
Speaker 226:18 - 26:36
所以这些就是一些最基本的问题。而所有这些 intelligence,不管是用于 proteins、cars、robots、language、math、science,还是什么别的东西,都必须由这些机器生成。所以,这个五层蛋糕就是它的 industrial version(产业版本)。我认为,这是思考该把钱投向哪里的一个好方法。
Speaker 126:37 - 27:07
Hugely so. So you've described what is a multi trillion dollar opportunity to become part of this revolution, and that includes the hardware and the facilities. If it's $50,000,000,000 for a gigawatt and there's 100 plus coming online in the next several years, that is trillions plus the application layer where that is many, many more trillions plus plus plus, and that means real jobs for people doing the the hands in building. And then
Speaker 126:37 - 27:07
绝对如此。所以你描述的是一个数万亿美元级的机会,让人们成为这场革命的一部分,而且这还包括 hardware 和 facilities(基础设施)。如果 1 gigawatt 要花 $50,000,000,000,而接下来几年会有 100 多个项目上线,那就是数万亿美元;再加上 application layer(应用层),那又是更多、更多的数万亿美元,而且这也意味着真实的就业机会,给那些亲手参与建设的人。然后——
Speaker 227:07 - 27:20
also Right now. Exactly. And We have to really emphasize this, and this is very important to you. Every country has a different attitude about AI today. Would you guys agree with that?
Speaker 227:07 - 27:20
也包括现在。完全正确。而且我们必须真正强调这一点,这对你们非常重要。今天,每个国家对 AI 的态度都不同。你们都同意这一点吧?
Speaker 227:20 - 27:44
Every country, because everybody's culture is a little different. Okay? And here's my recommendation. Be careful with the analogies and the science fiction stories that this is Terminator and words like singularity and ideas that somebody say, in 20% chance this will be the end of humanity as we know it. Okay?
Speaker 227:20 - 27:44
每个国家都不一样,因为每个地方的 culture(文化)多少都有些不同。好吗?我给你们的建议是:要谨慎使用那些类比和 science fiction(科幻)故事,不要把这说成是 Terminator,也不要动不动就用 singularity 这样的词,或者传播那种说法——比如“有 20% 的概率,这会成为我们所知的人类文明的终结”。好吗?
Speaker 227:44 - 27:59
Those kind of articulations of AI is just nonsense. It is complete nonsense. Oh, we have no idea how it works. This is so mysterious we don't even know how it works. It might just get up out of its seat and walk out tomorrow morning.
Speaker 227:44 - 27:59
那种对 AI 的表述纯粹是胡说,完全是胡说。哦,我们根本不知道它是怎么工作的。这东西太神秘了,我们甚至都不知道它怎么运作。它说不定明天早上就会自己从座位上站起来走出去。
Speaker 228:00 - 28:13
There's no question in my mind, it's computer and software. And there's no question in my mind, they know how it works. And do you know how they know how it works? Because every single year apparently it's getting better. If you don't know how something works, how do you make it better?
Speaker 228:00 - 28:13
在我看来毫无疑问,它就是 computer 和 software。而且在我看来也毫无疑问,人们是知道它怎么工作的。你知道他们为什么知道它怎么工作吗?因为显然它每一年都在变得更好。如果你不知道某样东西是怎么工作的,你又怎么把它做得更好?
Speaker 228:14 - 28:26
I have no idea how it works but I know how to make it better. That's nonsense. So why are they saying these things? That's an interesting question. However, don't let it scare you.
Speaker 228:14 - 28:26
我完全不知道它怎么工作,但我知道怎么把它做得更好——这就是胡说。所以他们为什么要这么说?这是个有意思的问题。不过,别让这件事吓到你。
Speaker 228:26 - 28:40
You must engage it. You may or may not lose a job to an AI. But you will absolutely lose a job to someone who uses AI. Would you agree with that? Okay, so let's not worry about the things you're not sure about and focus on the things that you are sure about.
Speaker 228:26 - 28:40
你必须主动去接触它、使用它。你可能会,也可能不会因为 AI 失去工作;但你绝对会把工作输给会使用 AI 的人。你同意吗?好,所以别去担心那些你拿不准的事,把注意力放在那些你确定的事上。
Speaker 228:42 - 29:03
I am absolutely certain I will lose my job to someone who uses AI. So before I worry about AI, let's just go make sure I use AI. Now why is that common sense so important for me to tell you? Because some of you have children. What are you advising them?
Speaker 228:42 - 29:03
我非常确定,我会把工作输给会使用 AI 的人。所以在我担心 AI 之前,先去确保我自己会用 AI。为什么这种常识对我来说这么重要,必须告诉你们?因为你们中有些人有孩子。你们在给他们什么建议?
Speaker 229:03 - 29:34
Run away? Or make sure whatever this technology is that gives people superpowers that you go make sure you use it. So I'm hoping that we do two things. One, we are and we're doing everything we can to build this technology safely for the world. I promise you so much computer science, so much investment, so much passion dedicated to making this technology safe for everybody to use and I can prove it.
Speaker 229:03 - 29:34
是让他们逃开吗?还是不管这项 technology 到底是什么——它能给人 superpowers——你都要确保自己去使用它。 所以我希望我们做两件事。第一,我们正在、而且会竭尽所能,以对世界安全的方式来构建这项 technology。我向你保证,有大量 computer science、大量 investment、大量 passion 都投入在让这项 technology 对每个人都安全可用这件事上,而且我可以证明。
Speaker 229:35 - 30:09
Use ChatGPT two years ago and use it again. The amount of hallucination completely reduced to almost nothing. To the point where it's producing knowledge not only accurately, contextually relevant, relevant to the moment and if it doesn't know the answer, it does research and when it comes up with an answer, it even questions itself. Before it tells you an answer, it reflects on it. And it comes up with two or different answers and it reflects on those before it produces the answer for you.
Speaker 229:35 - 30:09
你去用两年前的 ChatGPT,再用一次现在的。hallucination 的程度已经大幅下降,几乎接近于零。现在它生成的知识不仅准确、在语境上相关、也和当下情境相关;如果它不知道答案,它会去做 research,而当它得出一个答案时,它甚至还会质疑自己。在告诉你答案之前,它会先反思。它还会提出两个或不同的答案,并在给你答案之前先对这些答案进行反思。
Speaker 230:10 - 30:37
The amount of safety and guard railing, grounding of truth, the technology advanced so fast to make it safe. I am certain I can tell you this completely with fact. I prefer my car today than the car that was one hundred years ago. The technology is a lot better, but it's a lot safer. And it takes a lot of technology to be invented in order for it to be safe.
Speaker 230:10 - 30:37
无论是 safety、guard railing,还是 grounding of truth,这项 technology 为了变得更安全,进步得非常快。我可以完全基于事实、非常确定地告诉你这一点。我更喜欢今天的汽车,而不是一百年前的汽车。technology 好了很多,但也安全了很多。而要让它变得安全,就需要发明出大量的 technology。
Speaker 230:37 - 31:10
And so, I can tell you that it is our job, it is the responsibility of the technology industry, the responsibility of scientists and engineers for us to build AI safely. Two, it is your responsibility to make sure that you tell the people that you love, whether it's your family, your kids, your grandkids, or the company you work for, or the country that you're in. Whatever we do, engage AI. If we think it's a superpower, engage it. Because if we don't engage it, somebody else will.
Speaker 230:37 - 31:10
所以,我可以告诉你们,安全地构建 AI,是我们的工作,是科技行业的责任,是科学家和工程师的责任。第二,这也是你们的责任:确保你把这件事告诉你所爱的人,不管是你的家人、孩子、孙辈,还是你工作的公司,或你所在的国家。无论我们做什么,都要去采用 AI、参与 AI。如果我们认为它是一种 superpower(超能力),那就去拥抱它。因为如果我们不去用它,别人就会。
Speaker 231:12 - 31:33
We're not gonna lose our lives to AI, we're gonna lose our lives to somebody who uses AI. And so that's my, well that's too serious. That's the That's too serious. That was because he said the word job. So I've got a trigger and the trigger is a bunch of people making stuff up about jobs.
Speaker 231:12 - 31:33
我们不会因为 AI 而失去生计,我们会因为某个使用 AI 的人而失去生计。所以这就是我的,嗯,这话太严肃了。这,这太严肃了。那是因为他说到了 job 这个词。所以我被触发了,而这个触发点就是总有一群人在拿工作这件事胡编乱造。
Speaker 231:33 - 31:46
We put a trillion dollars into the world's ecosystem this year, did we not? What's it doing? Making jobs. Right now, the energy sector, more jobs than ever. The chip sector, more jobs than ever.
Speaker 231:33 - 31:46
我们今年向全球生态系统投入了一万亿美元,不是吗?它在做什么?在创造工作岗位。现在,能源行业的工作比以往任何时候都多。芯片行业的工作也比以往任何时候都多。
Speaker 231:46 - 31:59
Infrastructure layer, more jobs than ever. Everything from land, power, shell, finances. AI model layer, more jobs than ever. And we just said $100,000,000,000 last year went into the upper layer. More jobs than ever.
Speaker 231:46 - 31:59
基础设施层的工作比以往任何时候都多。从土地、电力、shell(机房外壳/基础载体)、金融,全部都在增加就业。AI model(模型)层的工作也比以往任何时候都多。我们刚刚也说了,去年有 1000 亿美元流入上层应用。工作岗位同样比以往任何时候都多。
Speaker 231:59 - 32:18
We're creating so many more jobs. Now, somebody might say, well, what about the traditional jobs? So, let me give you the example. You know that everybody's job and their task is related not the same. A job and the task you do in the job is related not the same.
Speaker 231:59 - 32:18
我们正在创造多得多的工作岗位。现在,有人可能会说,那传统工作怎么办?所以,我给你举个例子。你知道,每个人的 job(职位)和他执行的 task(任务)是相关的,但并不相同。一个职位,和你在这个职位中做的任务,彼此相关,但不是一回事。
Speaker 232:18 - 32:43
So for example, my job is to be the CEO, to lead the company. Most of the time, and I spent a lot of it today, most of my time my task is typing and talking. And so you could say CEO equals typing and talking. Both of them, AI does in a superhuman way. And I'm busier than ever.
Speaker 232:18 - 32:43
比如说,我的 job(职位)是担任 CEO,领导公司。大多数时候,而且我今天就花了很多时间在这上面,我的大部分时间里的 task(任务)其实是打字和说话。所以你可以说,CEO = 打字和说话。这两件事,AI 都能以 superhuman(超人级)的方式完成。而我却比以前更忙了。
Speaker 232:43 - 33:21
Of course, that's a really cute example, but let me give you a deep example and you can now apply it. So ten years ago, slightly more than that, one of the world's leading computer scientists wanted to warn everybody about the power of AI. And so he said, and Constantine probably knows who it is, he said, the first job that AI will destroy and eliminate, and I advise nobody goes into this field because this field will be wiped out is radiology. Computer vision is superhuman already twelve years ago. Computer vision.
Speaker 232:43 - 33:21
当然,这只是个很讨巧的例子,但我给你一个更深一点的例子,你现在就可以把它套用开来。所以,大约十年前,稍微更早一点,世界上一位顶尖的计算机科学家想提醒所有人 AI 的力量。于是他说,Constantine 可能知道这人是谁,他说,AI 将会摧毁并消灭的第一个职业——而且我建议任何人都不要进入这个领域,因为这个领域会被清空——就是 radiology(放射学)。十二年前,computer vision(计算机视觉)就已经达到 superhuman 水平了。computer vision。
Speaker 233:21 - 33:54
A computer can recognize images, detect anomalies with superhuman capability, never gets tired, never misses a detail. Twelve years ago it was able to do that and he predicted as a result of that, radiology is going to be wiped out. Well he was absolutely right. Radiology was completely penetrated by computer vision. Computer vision proliferated through every single form of radiology and every radiology stack and every radiologist today is augmented by computer vision.
Speaker 233:21 - 33:54
计算机能够以 superhuman 的能力识别图像、检测异常,而且从不疲倦、不会漏掉任何细节。十二年前它就已经能够做到这些了,因此他预测,radiology 将会被彻底消灭。结果呢,他说得完全对。radiology 的确被 computer vision 彻底渗透了。computer vision 扩散到了 radiology 的每一种形式、每一套 radiology 工作流中,而如今每一位 radiologist(放射科医生)都在 computer vision 的增强辅助之下工作。
Speaker 233:54 - 34:07
However, the interesting thing is this, radiology demand went up. The number of radiologists in the world went up. Why? Audience participation please. Why?
Speaker 233:54 - 34:07
不过,有意思的是,radiology(放射学)的需求上升了。全世界 radiologist(放射科医生)的数量也增加了。为什么?请大家参与一下。为什么?
Speaker 234:11 - 34:36
I heard some of the things, it's all true. It turns out, radiology spends a lot of time studying scans. But the purpose of the radiology, the purpose of the radiologist, is to work with doctors to diagnose disease. To work with doctors to diagnose disease. And because it's now automated, they are more productive.
Speaker 234:11 - 34:36
我听到了一些回答,都对。事实证明,radiology 要花很多时间研究扫描影像。但 radiology 的目的、radiologist 的目的,是与医生合作来诊断疾病。是与医生合作来诊断疾病。而因为这部分现在自动化了,他们的生产力更高了。
Speaker 234:36 - 35:04
So two things happen. More patients are admitted into the hospital. They do more scans. The radiology department became more profitable. When they realized they were more profitable and they were admitting more patients, they hired more radiologists so that they could admit more patients, so that they could make more money, take care of more people.
Speaker 234:36 - 35:04
所以发生了两件事。更多病人被收治进医院。他们做了更多扫描。radiology 科室变得更赚钱了。当他们意识到利润更高了,而且收治了更多病人之后,他们就雇用了更多 radiologist,这样他们就能收治更多病人,赚更多钱,照顾更多人。
Speaker 235:04 - 35:42
Because as it turns out, there are a lot of people who are suffering and they're waiting to get into the hospital. So now, let's pretend for a second, do you appreciate the computer scientists tell you it's going to be the end of the world for radiologists? My point is, we have to be responsible about what we make up because we could have done harm. And it turns out, the number of people who want to be radiologists after his speech because it permeated through everything, the number of radiologists started to decline. But we need more radiologists.
Speaker 235:04 - 35:42
因为事实证明,有很多人在受苦,他们正等着进入医院。现在,先让我们假设一下,你们能理解为什么 computer scientists(计算机科学家)会告诉你,这会是 radiologist 的世界末日吗?我的意思是,我们必须对自己编造出来的说法负责任,因为我们本来可能已经造成了伤害。结果是,在他那次演讲之后,因为这件事渗透到了各个地方,想成为 radiologist 的人数开始下降了。但我们其实需要更多 radiologist。
Speaker 235:43 - 36:04
Now somebody recently said 90% of software coding will be gone, and therefore we don't need software engineers. Meanwhile, we're hiring more software engineers than ever. The reason for that is because a software engineer's job is to solve problems and dream up problems to solve. Innovate. I never hired somebody and said, hey guess what, you're a software engineer, listen.
Speaker 235:43 - 36:04
最近又有人说,90% 的 software coding(软件编码)都会消失,因此我们不再需要 software engineers(软件工程师)了。可与此同时,我们雇用的 software engineers 比以往任何时候都更多。原因在于,software engineer 的工作是解决问题,并想出值得解决的问题。去创新。我从来没有雇过一个人,然后对他说,嘿,告诉你,你是个 software engineer,听着。
Speaker 236:05 - 36:20
Here's a keyboard, show me how many words a second you can type. Typing is not the job of a software engineer. Coding is not their job. Solving problems is their job. And so I just gave you two examples.
Speaker 236:05 - 36:20
给你一个键盘,给我看看你一秒钟能打多少个词。打字不是 software engineer 的工作。coding(写代码)也不是他们的工作。解决问题才是他们的工作。所以我刚刚给了你们两个例子。
Speaker 236:20 - 36:43
Task versus purpose. Does that make sense? It turns out this example happens all over the place. But because we have such a contrived, such a naive understanding that computer scientists could say things like 50% of the jobs will be gone. Software coding is completely irrelevant.
Speaker 236:20 - 36:43
task(任务)与 purpose(目的)的区别。这样讲有道理吗?事实证明,这样的例子到处都会发生。但因为我们的理解太人为、太幼稚了,computer scientists 才会说出“50% 的工作都会消失”这种话。software coding 根本不是关键。
Speaker 236:43 - 37:00
Radiology is going be wiped out because we think about it from the task perspective, we forgot the purpose of the job. There were radiologists before, there were workstations. There are going to be radiologists after AI. There engineers before software coding. I promise you that.
Speaker 236:43 - 37:00
之所以会说 radiology 将被彻底消灭,是因为我们是从 task 的角度去看它,却忘了这份工作的 purpose。在 workstation(工作站)出现之前就有 radiologist;在 AI 之后也还会有 radiologist。software coding 出现之前也有 engineers。我向你保证。
Speaker 237:00 - 37:17
There will be engineers after. Does that make sense? And so, that's the way to think about jobs. And I've now covered two things. One, if your country is not investing in AI, there's a massive boom of jobs that you're missing out on.
Speaker 237:00 - 37:17
在那之后还是会需要工程师。这样讲有道理吗?所以,这就是看待工作的方式。到这里我已经讲了两点。第一,如果你的国家没有投资 AI,那么你们就会错过一波巨大的就业繁荣。
Speaker 237:18 - 37:46
If your country or your company is not investing in AI, there's a level of elevation of your people that you're missing out on. AI is not going to eliminate jobs. AI is going to elevate your job. If I were a plumber today, largely I get a job task sheet or a schematic. However, if I'm a plumber tomorrow, it is very likely I'm a designer as well.
Speaker 237:18 - 37:46
如果你的国家或者你的公司没有投资 AI,那么你们就会错过一种对人的能力提升。AI 不会消灭工作。AI 会提升你的工作。如果今天我是个 plumber(管道工),通常我会拿到一张工作任务单或者一份 schematic(示意图)。但如果明天我还是个 plumber,那么我很可能同时也是个 designer(设计师)。
Speaker 237:47 - 38:14
Does that make sense? Because you and I both know that we could just use AI to generate these incredible designs of a kitchen, if I'm a carpenter. If I were a salesperson of furniture, I'm going be an interior designer for sure. And so I've elevated my craft. Went from somebody who sells furniture to somebody who could advise you on how beautiful your home could be.
Speaker 237:47 - 38:14
这样讲有道理吗?因为你我都知道,如果我是个 carpenter(木匠),我们完全可以用 AI 生成这些令人惊叹的厨房设计。如果我是卖家具的 salesperson(销售员),那我肯定也会成为 interior designer(室内设计师)。于是,我就提升了我的手艺。我从一个卖家具的人,变成了一个能给你建议、告诉你你的家可以变得多漂亮的人。
Speaker 238:14 - 38:31
I went from somebody who's a carpenter. You expecting me to come and just put some wood together and now I'm your home designer. I've elevated my craft. I've given you so many examples but that's my point. I think the narrative about AI is absolutely wrong.
Speaker 238:14 - 38:31
我从一个 carpenter(木匠)——原本你只会期待我过来拼点木头——变成了你家的 home designer(家居设计师)。我提升了自己的手艺。我已经给了你这么多例子,但我的重点就在这里。我认为现在关于 AI 的叙事完全错了。
Speaker 238:31 - 39:18
And the goal is to scare everybody out of it so that some people could benefit from it. But AI, as you know, is the greatest force for eliminating the technology divide in my entire career. I spent forty some odd years, my entire life has been in computer design, I spent forty some odd years and this entire time the technology we created became more and more and more and more complex and the number of people who could program these computers as a percentage of population declined. Who in this room knows C plus plus Come on, cut it out you weirdos. This row is just a startup company.
Speaker 238:31 - 39:18
而这个目标,就是把所有人都吓得远离它,好让少数人能够从中获益。但正如你所知,AI 是我整个职业生涯中,消除 technology divide(技术鸿沟)的最强力量。我在 computer design(计算机设计)领域度过了四十多年,几乎我的一生都在这里。我花了四十多年时间,而在这整个过程中,我们创造出来的技术变得越来越、越来越、越来越复杂;与此同时,能够给这些计算机编程的人,占总人口的比例却在下降。这个房间里谁会 C plus plus?来吧,别闹了,你们这些怪人。这一排简直就是一家 startup company(创业公司)。
Speaker 239:18 - 39:33
Okay, and so this row, okay, we're looking at 2%. Okay? 2% and this is a very strange room. This is a very strange room. And so 2% of society knows C plus plus How many people know human?
Speaker 239:18 - 39:33
好,那么这一排,行吧,我们就算 2%。好吗?2%,而且这还是一个非常特殊的房间。这个房间非常特殊。所以,社会中只有 2% 的人懂 C plus plus。那有多少人懂 human(人类语言)?
Speaker 239:35 - 39:48
Okay, more than 2%. And so can everybody program a computer and yet in the past only 2% can. We have closed the technology divide. We've got to bring everybody with us. Does that make sense?
Speaker 239:35 - 39:48
好,超过 2%。所以,既然这样,是不是每个人都能给计算机编程?可过去只有 2% 的人能做到。我们已经弥合了 technology divide(技术鸿沟)。我们必须把所有人都一起带上。这样讲有道理吗?
Speaker 239:48 - 39:52
Okay, anyways that's it. On a Friday night that's too serious.
Speaker 239:48 - 39:52
好,总之就这些了。周五晚上讲这么严肃的话题,未免太沉重了。
Speaker 139:52 - 40:39
That that that is extremely optimistic, and I agree. And it's great to hear from someone who is closer to actual building of the actual technology that powers everything than anyone else in the world. So Jensen, you talked about a future where we move from retrieval, this paradigm that we've had our entire lives in, to generation where everything is customized, knowledge is customized for the individual, a world where we have the generation of intelligence paralleling from the energy to the telecommunications revolution to now the intelligence revolution. You talked about these languages that the computer can speak, not just English or German, but even protein. You talked about five layers of participation,
Speaker 139:52 - 40:39
那、那、那真是极其乐观,而我同意。并且,能听到一位比世界上任何其他人都更接近于真正构建支撑这一切的真实技术的人这样说,实在太好了。所以,Jensen,你谈到了一个未来:我们将从 retrieval(检索)——这个伴随我们一生的范式——转向 generation(生成),在那里一切都是定制化的,知识会为个人而定制;你描绘了一个 intelligence(智能)的生成与发展相并行的世界,就像从 energy(能源)革命到 telecommunications(电信)革命,再到如今的 intelligence revolution(智能革命)。你谈到了计算机能够“说”的这些语言,不只是 English 或 German,甚至还有 protein。你还谈到了五个层次的参与,
Speaker 240:39 - 40:39
a
Speaker 240:39 - 40:39
microscope(显微镜)、astrolabe(星盘)那样,贯穿几个世纪。
Speaker 140:39 - 41:09
abundant opportunity to participate in this revolution for everyone in this room and and everyone listening. And you talked about how this transformation is gonna be something that has real consequences, real consequences that allow people to move from just doing the task to dreaming the problems and the solutions, maybe even a life of purpose and a life where we move from carpenters to architects. Thank you, Jensen. Please join me in thanking Jensen Huang, the man who made the sale happen. Thank you.
Speaker 140:39 - 41:09
这场革命为这个房间里的每一个人,以及每一位正在收听的人,都提供了充足的参与机会。你还谈到,这种转型将带来真正的后果、真正的影响,这些影响会让人们不再只是完成任务,而是去构想问题与解决方案,甚至可能走向一种有使命感的人生,一种我们从 carpenters(木匠)走向 architects(建筑师)的生活。谢谢你,Jensen。请和我一起感谢 Jensen Huang,这位促成这场成交的人。谢谢。
Speaker 141:11 - 41:12
Thank you so much.
Speaker 141:11 - 41:12
非常感谢。
Speaker 241:12 - 41:17
You're all awesome. You're all appreciated. Thank you. Bye.
Speaker 241:12 - 41:17
你们都太棒了。你们都值得感激。谢谢。再见。
原文 ↗https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UpQbeAZuqA
BuildSpeak — 关于本项目BUILT IN PUBLIC · 跟随 builders 而非 influencers