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🎙 PODCASTNo Priors· Apr 9 2026· 7,965 words · ~40 min

The Agentic Economy: How AI Agents Will Transform the Financial System with Circle Co-Founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire

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Speaker 100:05 - 00:19
Today I know Priors, have Jeremy Allaire, the co founder and CEO of Circle. We'll be talking about cryptocurrency, AI, agentic payments, AI evolving on the blockchain, and a variety of other topics. Great. Well, thank you so much for joining us today. It's a pleasure to have you.
Speaker 100:05 - 00:19
今天做客 Priors 节目的是 Circle 的联合创始人兼 CEO Jeremy Allaire。我们会聊 cryptocurrency(加密货币)、AI、agentic payments(agent 驱动支付)、AI 在 blockchain(区块链)上的演进,以及其他各种话题。太好了。非常感谢你今天加入我们,很高兴邀请到你。
Speaker 200:19 - 00:22
It's great to be here. Thank you. So maybe we can start with
Speaker 200:19 - 00:22
很高兴来到这里。谢谢。那么也许我们可以先从——
Speaker 100:22 - 00:36
you just giving a quick overview of Circle, what you do, how you approach the world, because I think we're going to be talking a lot about stablecoins, crypto, AI, and how all these things tie into sort of the agentic future. But I'd love to just start with sort of origins of the company, what you all are up to, and we can go from there.
Speaker 100:22 - 00:36
请你先快速介绍一下 Circle:你们做什么、你们如何看待这个世界。因为我想,我们接下来会大量谈到 stablecoin(稳定币)、crypto(加密货币)、AI,以及这些东西如何与某种 agentic future(agent 驱动的未来)联系起来。不过我很想先从公司的起源开始聊起,谈谈你们目前在做什么,然后我们再从那里展开。
Speaker 200:36 - 01:15
Yeah, for sure. So, yeah, Circle's been around for a while. I co founded the company over yeah, thirteen years ago or so, 2013. And really at inception, I was really excited about this idea that we could create a protocol for dollars on the internet. And I had been really excited about what was happening with technologies like Bitcoin, and had been, you know, working on kind of internet infrastructure for a long time, and got really excited like if we had like a protocol for dollars on the internet, that, you know, potentially we could have a way to store and move value, you know, instantly, globally, frictionlessly, at no cost, ultimately.
Speaker 200:36 - 01:15
好,当然可以。Circle 已经存在挺久了。我大概是在 13 年前,也就是 2013 年,联合创立了这家公司。公司创立之初,真正让我非常兴奋的,是这样一个想法:我们也许可以为互联网上的美元创建一种 protocol(协议)。我当时对 Bitcoin 这样的技术所发生的一切感到非常兴奋,而且你知道,我长期一直在做某种互联网基础设施方面的工作。于是我开始特别激动地想到:如果我们能拥有一种互联网美元协议,那么理论上我们就可能拥有一种方式,能够最终以即时、全球化、无摩擦、零成本的方式来存储和转移价值。
Speaker 201:16 - 02:11
The other idea that we were really excited about back then was this idea of programmable money, and the idea that eventually these networks, blockchains, would become like operating systems, and you could actually have machines that intermediate economic activity and financial activity on the Internet, including like autonomous software machines. And back then, we didn't have generative AI or anything like that. But this sort of idea of kind of commoditizing the kind of payment utility layer with like very safe digital dollar digital currencies, and then having like programmability of that with machines that are kind of tamper resistant, can run on the internet, that's what kind of drove the founding of the company. And the view was like, if we could do that, we could actually improve the financial system, make it safer, make it more accessible, make it more efficient, and kind of derive new utility from money that we haven't had before. And so that was sort of where
Speaker 201:16 - 02:11
当时另一个让我们非常兴奋的想法,是 programmable money(可编程货币)这个概念,以及这样一种设想:这些网络,也就是 blockchains(区块链),最终会变得像 operating systems(操作系统)一样,而你实际上可以拥有一些机器,来中介互联网中的经济活动和金融活动,其中甚至包括 autonomous software machines(自主软件机器)。那时候我们还没有 generative AI(生成式 AI)之类的东西。但这种思路——把支付的 utility layer(效用层)通过非常安全的数字美元数字货币加以商品化,同时让它具备可编程性,并由那些具有 tamper resistant(抗篡改)特性、能够在互联网上运行的机器来执行——这正是推动公司创立的核心动力。我们的看法是,如果我们能做到这一点,就有可能真正改进金融系统,让它更安全、更可及、更高效,并从货币中释放出我们过去从未拥有过的新效用。所以这大概就是当时的出发点。
Speaker 102:11 - 02:31
Why is we the dollar aspect of that important? So if you look at a lot of the things that happened in cryptocurrency in the early days, it was really about creating things that were divorced from the traditional financial system if possible, were not dollar centric. So, for example, Bitcoin was in part a response to the great financial crisis, and the view that all sorts of weird bailouts happened there, and therefore we needed some alternative sort of financial infrastructure for the world.
Speaker 102:11 - 02:31
那么,为什么其中“美元”这个部分如此重要?因为如果你回看 cryptocurrency 早期发生的很多事情,那其实主要是在尝试创造一些尽可能脱离传统金融体系、并且不是以美元为中心的东西。比如说,Bitcoin 在某种程度上就是对全球金融危机的一种回应;当时的看法是,危机中出现了各种奇怪的 bailout(纾困/救助),因此我们需要某种替代性的全球金融基础设施。
Speaker 202:31 - 03:00
Yeah. So, think, so actually, what's very interesting is like, I believe in kind of Austrian economic thought. I was studying Austrian economic thought like in the early 1990s for a very long time. And so, I've been interested in sound money theory. And actually, it was studying the kind of impact of the global financial crisis that drew me into this, because my view is like there has to be a way to build like a safer financial system.
Speaker 202:31 - 03:00
是的。所以,我觉得其实很有意思的是,我本人是相信 Austrian economic thought(奥地利学派经济思想)的。我从 1990 年代初就开始研究奥地利学派经济思想,而且研究了很长时间。所以,我一直对 sound money theory(健全货币理论)很感兴趣。实际上,正是对全球金融危机影响的研究,把我带入了这个领域,因为我的看法是:一定存在一种方法,能够建立一个更安全的金融系统。
Speaker 203:00 - 03:12
And the key issue there was I was interested in this idea of full reserve money. And in some ways, Bitcoin is full reserve money because there is no way to fractionally lend Bitcoin per se.
Speaker 203:00 - 03:12
而其中的关键问题在于,我当时对 full reserve money(全额准备金货币)这个概念很感兴趣。从某种意义上说,Bitcoin 就是一种 full reserve money,因为原则上不存在对 Bitcoin 进行 fractional lending(部分准备金放贷)的方式。
Speaker 103:12 - 03:17
Full reserve money means currency that's backed by something hard behind it, some asset.
Speaker 103:12 - 03:17
全额准备金货币(full reserve money)指的是背后有某种坚实支撑物、某种资产作为支持的货币。
Speaker 203:17 - 03:47
Doesn't necessarily mean it's a hard back. Full reserve money is different than, say, fractional Full reserve banking, I should say, is different than fractional reserve banking. And so, you know, back in There was another major economic collapse, which was the Great Depression, the run on all the banks, and all that fun. And in the 1930s, there was a really big debate about like, what's the right construct for the banking system and the financial system? And there was a proposal from a group of economists called the Chicago Plan.
Speaker 203:17 - 03:47
这并不一定意味着这种支撑本身就是“硬”的。我应该说,全额准备金银行(full reserve banking)不同于部分准备金银行(fractional reserve banking)。你知道,早些年还发生过另一场重大的经济崩溃,也就是 Great Depression,当时银行挤兑四起,诸如此类。在 1930 年代,围绕“银行体系和金融体系的正确构造到底是什么”展开了一场非常大的争论。其中有一群经济学家提出了一个方案,叫 Chicago Plan。
Speaker 203:48 - 04:18
And the kind of ringleader was a Chicago economist. Actually, it might have been a Yale economist or Princeton at the time, but Irving Fisher, who wrote a book called 100% Money. And that idea was that full reserve money was essentially, you know, government obligation money. So, it's still the obligation of the government, like the US government in that instance. But that essentially, you can have that, and you can hold that, but you can't take that and then fractionally lend against it.
Speaker 203:48 - 04:18
其中某种意义上的带头人是一位 Chicago 经济学家。其实他当时也可能是在 Yale 或 Princeton,但那个人是 Irving Fisher,他写过一本叫《100% Money》的书。这个想法是,全额准备金货币本质上是一种政府负债型货币(government obligation money)。所以,它仍然是政府的义务,比如在那个例子里是 US government 的义务。但关键是,你可以拥有它、持有它,却不能拿它去做部分准备金式的放贷。
Speaker 204:18 - 04:50
So, you have kind of a full reserve, and you can only lend full reserve money. And so, that was a big proposal for how to structure the way the financial system worked. And it was actually lobbied very, very hard against it by the banks. And the banks really liked fractional reserve. They liked to be able to have the inherent kind of leverage and risk taking, and instead convinced the government to establish, or they collectively with the government sanctioned, established an insurance company called the Federal Depository Insurance Company Corporation.
Speaker 204:18 - 04:50
所以,你拥有的是一种全额准备金,而你也只能贷出全额准备金货币。因此,这曾是一个关于如何构建金融体系运作方式的重要提案。实际上,银行业对它进行了非常非常强烈的游说反对。银行很喜欢部分准备金制度;他们喜欢那种内含的杠杆和风险承担能力,转而说服政府设立——或者说他们与政府共同认可并建立了——一家保险机构,叫 Federal Depository Insurance Company Corporation。
Speaker 204:50 - 05:22
And so, that was a kind of corporate insurance model, but the risk taking still existed. And so, we've continued to kind of face those issues. The great financial crisis was an example of 30x leverage, 12x leverage, 14x leverage against these sort of base layers. And so, my philosophy has been, well, right now, in terms of general utility, our existing economic system, it does depend on really major reserve currencies like the dollar. And my view is like that's going to continue for a while.
Speaker 204:50 - 05:22
所以,那是一种公司化的保险模型,但风险承担依然存在。因此,这类问题我们一直持续面对。Great Financial Crisis 就是一个例子:针对这些基础层(base layers),出现了 30 倍杠杆、12 倍杠杆、14 倍杠杆。我的理念一直是:至少在当前,就一般效用(general utility)而言,我们现有的经济体系确实依赖像 dollar 这样的主要储备货币(reserve currencies)。而我的看法是,这种情况还会持续一段时间。
Speaker 205:22 - 05:33
Maybe thirty, forty, fifty years, it'll continue for a while. But what we want to do is construct a system that is in fact safer. So, full reserve form of money. And that's what stablecoins are. That's what dollar stablecoins are.
Speaker 205:22 - 05:33
也许还会持续三十年、四十年、五十年,总之还会持续一段时间。但我们想做的是,构建一个事实上更安全的系统。也就是一种全额准备金形式的货币。这正是 stablecoins(稳定币)所代表的东西,dollar stablecoins(美元稳定币)就是如此。
Speaker 205:33 - 05:51
And in fact, with the Genius Act that passed last year, it's sort of codified in law. Like, you can't do anything with this. It's like this very narrowly bound, narrow money kind of model. And so, I think in some ways, like that original vision, we've now got established in laws around the world. And now we have to do more with it.
Speaker 205:33 - 05:51
事实上,随着去年通过的 Genius Act,这一点某种程度上已经被写入法律了。也就是说,你不能拿这类东西去做别的用途。它像是一种边界非常狭窄的、narrow money(狭义货币)式模型。所以我认为,从某种意义上说,当初那种原始愿景,如今已经通过世界各地的法律被确立下来了。现在我们要做的是,在此基础上进一步推进。
Speaker 205:51 - 05:58
We have to make it extraordinarily useful. Can lend that form of money as well, but it's just that you can't do fractional reserve.
Speaker 205:51 - 05:58
我们必须让它变得极其有用。你同样可以借出这种形式的货币,只不过你不能实行部分准备金。
Speaker 105:58 - 06:10
So what are stablecoins currently backed by? My understanding is, for example, the stablecoin companies are big buyers of treasuries, or US treasuries, and other sort of instruments like that. Could you explain a bit more sort of what tends to back these things?
Speaker 105:58 - 06:10
那么,stablecoins(稳定币)目前是由什么来支撑的?我的理解是,比如说,stablecoin companies(稳定币公司)是 treasuries(国债),或者 US treasuries(美国国债),以及其他类似工具的大买家。你能不能再多解释一点,这类东西通常是由什么来支持的?
Speaker 206:11 - 06:35
Yeah. So, up until really the last couple of years, you know, stablecoins like USDC had to be always one for one redeemable against, you know, very safe liquid assets. And we couldn't take risk outside of what was permitted under the kind of payment system laws that regulated us. And so that was Circle. There are other people who didn't take that approach.
Speaker 206:11 - 06:35
对。其实直到最近这几年之前,像 USDC 这样的 stablecoins(稳定币)都必须始终能够按 1:1 赎回,对应的是非常安全、流动性很强的资产。而且我们不能承担超出监管我们的那类 payment system laws(支付系统法律)所允许范围之外的风险。Circle 一直是这么做的。当然,也有其他一些人没有采取这种做法。
Speaker 206:36 - 07:16
And, you know, but, you know, sort of fiat stablecoins in this way, we're back that way. Now, laws have now come into play in major jurisdictions, whether it's in Europe, or Japan, or The US, etc. And we've been following whatever laws apply to us, you know, whenever they apply to us, obviously. But what that's really led to is an architecture, which is basically what's now federal law, which is really holding only short duration US government treasuries, or treasury collateral that is overnight with like global banks. So, that's, you know, very safe overnight treasury collateral for cash.
Speaker 206:36 - 07:16
不过,这类 fiat stablecoins(法币稳定币)基本上就是按这种方式来支撑的。现在,主要司法辖区都已经有相关法律开始生效了,无论是 Europe、Japan,还是 The US 等等。显然,只要有适用于我们的法律,我们一直都会遵守。但这实际上最终形成了一种架构,而这基本上也就是现在的 federal law(联邦法律)所要求的:只持有短久期的 US government treasuries(美国政府国债),或者存放在 global banks(全球性银行)那里的隔夜 treasury collateral(国债抵押品)。所以,本质上就是非常安全的、可隔夜变现的 treasury collateral(国债抵押品)和现金安排。
Speaker 207:17 - 07:40
And then, you know, some amount in cash that is for kind of immediate liquidity. But in that case, it's sort of holding it in these sort of big custodial institutions like Bank of New York that holds hundreds of trillions of dollars, etc, of assets. And so, that is essentially the architecture of USDC. And we're very transparent. We have daily transparency onto most of it through a system we set up with BlackRock.
Speaker 207:17 - 07:40
然后,另外还会保留一部分现金,用于即时流动性需求。但这部分通常也是存放在像 Bank of New York 这样的、大型 custodial institutions(托管机构)里,这类机构托管着数十万亿美元的资产,等等。所以,这基本上就是 USDC 的架构。我们也非常透明。通过我们与 BlackRock 搭建的一套系统,我们对其中大部分资产都能做到按日透明披露。
Speaker 207:40 - 07:42
So USDC is
Speaker 207:40 - 07:42
所以 USDC 是
Speaker 107:42 - 07:56
like a crypto token that anybody can effectively purchase, and in exchange for $1 you'd get one USDC. And the USDC continues to be backed by a government treasury, like a short term T Bill or some cash or some exchange.
Speaker 107:42 - 07:56
一种 crypto token(加密代币),任何人实际上都可以购买;你支付 1 美元,就会得到 1 个 USDC。而 USDC 会持续由 government treasury(政府国债),比如短期 T Bill(国库券),或者一些现金、某种等价资产来支撑。
Speaker 207:56 - 08:14
That's right. It's backed by treasuries, repos, and short duration T bills. The average duration tends to be of the T bills, that portfolio tends to be around like thirteen days. So, it's super, super liquid and kind of it sort of allows it to be treated as like a cash instrument.
Speaker 207:56 - 08:14
没错。它由 treasuries(国债)、repos(回购协议)和短久期 T bills(国库券)来支撑。T bills 那个投资组合的平均久期通常大约在 13 天左右。所以它的流动性非常、非常强,因此基本上可以被当作一种现金工具来对待。
Speaker 108:14 - 08:15
What do people do with it? What are the
Speaker 108:14 - 08:15
人们会拿它来做什么?有哪些
Speaker 208:15 - 08:38
main use cases of USDC? The conception of this obviously is like a general protocol for dollars on the internet. And in fact, the whole design is this is like a general purpose, general architecture money. And we actually see it used, you know, from at the very smallest end, like someone who's paying, you know, 25¢ for a digital object in a digital game that's built on a blockchain. That would be like one end.
Speaker 208:15 - 08:38
USDC 的主要用例是什么?它背后的构想显然是把它做成一种互联网上的通用美元协议。事实上,它的整体设计就是一种通用用途、通用架构的 money。我们确实看到它被用于各种场景:从非常小额的一端开始,比如有人为建立在 blockchain 上的数字游戏中的一个数字物品支付 25¢。这算是一端。
Speaker 208:38 - 09:22
Or even now we're starting to see, and we'll come back to this topic I'm sure, you know, AI agents that are paying for the output of essentially the AI tokens of another AI agent. And they're, you know, spending, again, just, you know, a dollar, 50¢, 20¢, etc. So, super tiny transactions at one end, all the way to the largest electronic trading firms in the world that do huge amounts of capital markets activity who are, you know, settling multi $100,000,000 transactions. And the powerful thing is it's all the same. Just like, you know, if I send you an email, you know, and my email's like, hey, this is what I had for breakfast, the payload of that is the same as if I sent you an email that had like a CAA dossier attached to it.
Speaker 208:38 - 09:22
甚至现在我们开始看到——我相信我们等会儿一定会回到这个话题——AI agents 在为另一个 AI agent 输出的、某种意义上相当于 AI tokens 的内容付费。它们花的也还是很小的金额,比如 1 美元、50¢、20¢ 等等。所以,一端是超微小交易,另一端则是全球最大的电子交易公司,它们进行大量资本市场活动,结算的是数亿美元规模的交易。而强大之处在于,这一切用的都是同一套东西。就像如果我给你发一封 email,我的 email 里写的是“嘿,这是我早餐吃的东西”,它的 payload 和我发给你一封附带 CAA dossier 的 email,本质上是一样的。
Speaker 209:22 - 09:55
Like, USDC doesn't care. You know, so as general architecture, it can be used across a huge range of things. And we have everything from merchants in Stripe and Shopify that are using it, to Visa actually using it themselves to actually move money on their own internal network instead of using the legacy banking system, to lots of kind of neobanks, remittance companies that are using it as a way to move value. You know, a great kind of B2B fintech ramp just yesterday launched USDC as like core to their treasury system. You can use to pay invoices, pay annual payroll.
Speaker 209:22 - 09:55
比如说,USDC 并不在意这些。所以,作为一种通用架构,它可以被用于极其广泛的场景。我们看到从 Stripe 和 Shopify 上使用它的 merchants,到 Visa 自己实际使用它,在自己的内部网络上转移资金,而不是依赖 legacy banking system,再到很多 neobanks、remittance companies,都把它作为转移价值的一种方式。就在昨天,一家很棒的 B2B fintech ramp 刚刚上线了 USDC,并把它作为其 treasury system 的核心。你可以用它支付 invoices、支付年度 payroll。
Speaker 109:55 - 10:10
So my sense is some of the reasons people do this is number one, you can do it at any time. So for example, if I send a wire, I know a lot of crypto companies, for example, that when they raise money, they ask you to send USDC because instead of hitting a wiring deadline in the afternoon, can wire the money on the weekend. You can send money anytime.
Speaker 109:55 - 10:10
所以我的感觉是,人们这样做的一些原因,第一是你可以在任何时间进行操作。比如说,如果我发一笔 wire,我知道很多 crypto 公司在融资时,会要求你直接发送 USDC,因为这样你不用赶下午的银行电汇截止时间,周末也能把钱打过去。你可以随时汇款。
Speaker 210:10 - 10:33
Which just works the way the internet works, right? I mean, our expectation is like, I can pick up, you know, my WhatsApp, or I can pick up my WeChat, and I can just communicate in video with anyone anywhere, and it just works, Right? And my expectation is like, hey, if I make a piece of software, and I put it on the Internet, billions of people can access it. I don't need to do something special. I think that's basically, this is just Internet native, and it runs on Internet protocols.
Speaker 210:10 - 10:33
这就和互联网的工作方式一致,对吧?我的意思是,我们的预期就是:我拿起 WhatsApp,或者拿起 WeChat,就可以和世界上任何地方的人进行视频沟通,而且它就是能正常工作,对吧?我的预期也包括:如果我做了一款软件,并把它放到 Internet 上,数十亿人都可以访问它,我不需要为此做什么特别处理。我认为本质上就是这样:这东西是 Internet native 的,它运行在 Internet protocols 之上。
Speaker 210:33 - 10:42
And so it behaves the way that any piece of data or content behaves on the Internet, which is what our expectations are, people's expectations are. Yeah.
Speaker 210:33 - 10:42
因此,它的行为方式就和互联网上任何数据或内容的行为方式一样,而这正是我们的预期,也是人们的预期。对。
Speaker 110:42 - 11:00
I was just trying to enumerate a little bit of what makes it a superior instrument for all sorts of purposes. And one is 20 fourseven accessibility, Two, maybe some form of transaction fees relative to the volume. And then three is, my sense is it's also a way for people to participate in US dollars who often would not have access directly. And so they use crypto as almost a proxy too.
Speaker 110:42 - 11:00
我刚才只是想稍微列举一下,是什么让它成为一种在各种用途上都更优的 instrument。第一,是 24/7 可访问性;第二,可能是相对于交易量而言更有优势的 transaction fees;第三,我的感觉是,它也让那些通常无法直接接触美元的人能够参与到 US dollars 中来。因此,他们几乎把 crypto 也当作一种 proxy 来使用。
Speaker 211:00 - 11:29
Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think store value is a really big thing, and we see that. And in fact, like the law that was passed last year, the Genius Act, like a big motivation for the administration, and this is something that we've been proposing and kind of pushing for a long time is that this is a way to continue to export the dollar. And so, we're now exporting digital dollars, and we're doing that all around the world. And that's like strategically important to The United States from a geopolitical, geoeconomic perspective.
Speaker 211:00 - 11:29
对,当然。我认为 value store 确实是一件非常重要的事,而且我们也确实看到了这一点。事实上,去年通过的那部法律,Genius Act,政府推动它的一大动机——而这也是我们长期以来一直在提出并努力推动的事情——就是把这当作一种继续输出美元的方式。所以,我们现在输出的是 digital dollars,而且是在全球范围内这样做。从 geopolitical 和 geoeconomic 的角度看,这对 The United States 具有战略重要性。
Speaker 211:30 - 12:05
But you know, there's other things too, which is, this comes from my own background as well, which is, this is programmable money. There's never been programmable money. Like, you actually have essentially, like our stablecoin network is just a public API on the public internet that anyone can plug into and use. And so, if I'm a developer, and I want like global dollar settlement, and I want to provide that as a capability to my users, I don't have to ask permission. I can just go connect to that smart contract, connect to that public API, and boom, I have now an application with Global Digital Dollar Utility.
Speaker 211:30 - 12:05
不过你知道,还有别的一些东西,这也和我自己的背景有关,那就是:这是 programmable money(可编程货币)。以前从来没有过 programmable money。实际上,基本上可以说,我们的 stablecoin network(稳定币网络)就是 public internet(公共互联网)上的一个 public API,任何人都可以接入并使用。所以,如果我是一个 developer(开发者),我想要全球美元清算,并且想把这项能力提供给我的用户,我不需要申请许可。我只要去连接那个 smart contract(智能合约),连接那个 public API,砰的一下,我现在就有了一个具备 Global Digital Dollar Utility 的应用。
Speaker 212:05 - 12:07
And so that's really different. Yeah.
Speaker 212:05 - 12:07
所以这真的很不一样。对。
Speaker 112:07 - 12:23
And smart contracts is basically a way to write code that's wrapped around this money that allows you to effectively have a virtual contract online. So you can say under XYZ conditions, pay this out. I'm going to generate a financial instrument off of this. And it's just kind of based on this other layer that you can plug into effectively.
Speaker 112:07 - 12:23
而 smart contracts(智能合约)基本上是一种围绕这种货币来编写代码的方式,它实际上让你能够在线上拥有一种 virtual contract(虚拟合约)。所以你可以说,在 XYZ 条件下,就执行这笔支付。我还可以基于它生成一种 financial instrument(金融工具)。它本质上是建立在另一层之上的,而你实际上可以把它接入进去。
Speaker 212:23 - 12:41
Yeah. That is definitely the case. And I think the idea of programmable money was like, again, this early idea that we had. And smart contracts was sort of the original expression. But when I looked at that thirteen years ago, my view was that blockchain networks are operating systems.
Speaker 212:23 - 12:41
对,确实是这样。我认为 programmable money(可编程货币)这个想法,再说一次,是我们当时很早期的一个想法。而 smart contracts(智能合约)算是它最初的表达形式。但在十三年前我看这个问题时,我的观点是,blockchain networks(区块链网络)是 operating systems(操作系统)。
Speaker 212:41 - 12:57
They're going to be operating systems. And so, when we think about operating systems, we have lots of paradigms for that. We have mobile operating systems. The web was itself kind of an operating system with a runtime and a language model and an object model. And, you know, clouds became kind of like these big virtual operating system environments.
Speaker 212:41 - 12:57
它们会成为 operating systems(操作系统)。所以,当我们思考 operating systems 时,我们有很多现成的范式。我们有 mobile operating systems(移动操作系统)。web 本身某种意义上也是一种操作系统,拥有 runtime(运行时)、language model(语言模型)和 object model(对象模型)。而且你知道,clouds(云)后来也变得有点像这种大型的虚拟操作系统环境。
Speaker 212:57 - 13:14
AI foundation models are now essentially operating systems that execute tasks and other things. Blockchains are operating systems, and they have compute engines. They have virtual machines, and you can write Turing complete code. You can write software that runs on these. But there's some really key attributes that make them different.
Speaker 212:57 - 13:14
现在,AI foundation models(AI 基础模型)本质上也成了执行任务和其他事务的操作系统。blockchains(区块链)是 operating systems(操作系统),它们有 compute engines(计算引擎)。它们有 virtual machines(虚拟机),你可以编写 Turing complete(图灵完备)的代码。你可以编写在这些系统上运行的软件。但它们有一些非常关键的属性,使它们与众不同。
Speaker 213:14 - 13:29
So, the first is that the code is sort of tamper resistant. Once it's published, it's sort of like out as like a machine that's tamper resistant. The second is it's perfectly auditable. You can audit every single input and output of that machine, of that code in real time.
Speaker 213:14 - 13:29
所以,第一点是,这些代码某种程度上是 tamper resistant(防篡改)的。一旦发布,它就有点像一台具备防篡改能力的机器,被放了出去。第二点是,它是完全可审计的。你可以实时审计这台机器、这段代码的每一个输入和输出。
Speaker 113:29 - 13:31
Because it's all on a public blockchain, so anybody in the world can That's right.
Speaker 113:29 - 13:31
因为这一切都在 public blockchain(公共区块链)上,所以世界上任何人都可以——没错。
Speaker 213:31 - 14:11
So, it's like all the compute is public, accessible, it's open source by nature, and that's really powerful as well. And, you know, it also has these sort of essentially kind of transaction and compute integrity assurances. And this is really key, and it ties back to AI as well, which is like you want assurances that the machine is doing what it said it's going to do, and you want kind of the inputs and outputs to be provable, and the state of the machine to be provable. And these are things that it was not easy to do in the past. And so, network computers, these operating systems now provide for that.
Speaker 213:31 - 14:11
所以,这就像是所有 compute(算力/计算)都是公开的、可访问的,本质上也是 open source(开源)的,而这一点本身就非常强大。而且,你知道,它还具备某种本质上的 transaction(交易)和 compute integrity(计算完整性)保障。这一点非常关键,也和 AI 有关:你希望能确保机器确实在做它声称会做的事,你也希望它的输入和输出是可证明的,机器的状态也是可证明的。而这些事情在过去并不容易做到。所以,network computers(网络计算机)、这些 operating systems(操作系统)现在提供了这种能力。
Speaker 214:11 - 14:37
And as we're moving into the AI driven economic system, right, having those mechanisms becomes even more important. It happened to be important for financial transactions where integrity proof, auditability, verifiability are like intrinsic in a fiduciary apparatus. That was like really key. But now, when we're dealing with, you know, kind of autonomous actions in the economy, that also becomes extremely It'd
Speaker 214:11 - 14:37
而当我们进入 AI 驱动的经济系统时,这些机制就变得更加重要了。它们原本对金融交易就很重要,因为 integrity proof(完整性证明)、auditability(可审计性)、verifiability(可验证性)本来就是 fiduciary apparatus(受托/金融信义体系)中的内在组成部分。这一点一直都非常关键。但现在,当我们处理经济中的 autonomous actions(自主行动)时,这也会变得极其——
Speaker 114:37 - 15:07
be great to talk about that because, you know, jeez, probably seven, eight years ago, me and my friends used to speculate that the most likely place maybe that AGI would emerge, which again, I don't think is going be the case in the future, would be off of the blockchain because you had these effectively agents. They're very simple agents you've been running back then in some sense in terms of doing transactions on the blockchain. And you had these economic games that were multi turn economic games to some extent that these actors could play. And so we said, isn't that a great place to basically evolve intelligence? Right?
Speaker 114:37 - 15:07
很值得谈谈这个,因为,天哪,大概七八年前,我和我的朋友们曾经猜测,AGI 最有可能出现的地方,也许会是 blockchain(区块链)之上——当然,我现在并不认为未来会是这样——因为你在那里实际上拥有这些 agent(智能体)。它们在某种意义上是非常简单的 agent,至少在当时是这样,主要是在 blockchain 上执行交易。你还拥有这些经济博弈,在一定程度上是多轮的经济博弈,而这些参与者可以参与其中。所以我们当时会说,这难道不是一个让 intelligence(智能)自然演化出来的绝佳场所吗?对吧?
Speaker 115:07 - 15:24
Because you have these multi turn games, you have economic incentives, you have game theory, you learn all sorts of lessons off of that. Obviously, there's a very different world now with sort of generative AI and foundation models. But I'd love to hear your view of where are Agenic payments going? And is it going to be crypto? Is it going to be more just traditional banking systems?
Speaker 115:07 - 15:24
因为你有这些多轮博弈,你有经济激励,你有 game theory(博弈论),你能从中学到各种各样的东西。显然,现在随着 generative AI(生成式 AI)和 foundation models(基础模型)的出现,世界已经很不一样了。但我很想听听你的看法:Agenic payments(智能体支付)会走向哪里?它会是 crypto(加密货币)吗?还是会更多地依赖传统银行系统?
Speaker 115:24 - 15:28
Is it a hybrid? Like, what do you think are the drivers of that? I mean, there's a lot
Speaker 115:24 - 15:28
它会是混合形态吗?比如,你觉得它的驱动因素是什么?我的意思是,这里面其实有很多——
Speaker 215:28 - 16:02
in there. There's lot we could talk about. So, maybe first, like, I think, you know, my own view is that, you know, we're going through a pretty steep kind of curve right now. We're like in the, you know, about three months into a pretty dramatic shift in kind of the fundamental capabilities of technology, probably the most dramatic that I've ever seen in my own time in technology. And I think, you know, that shift is effectively going to mean that a couple things in my view.
Speaker 215:28 - 16:02
有很多内容。我们能谈的东西很多。所以,也许先说第一点:我自己的看法是,我们现在正处在一条相当陡峭的曲线上。我们大概正处于一场相当剧烈转变开始后的三个月左右,这种转变发生在技术的基础能力层面,可能是我自己从事科技以来见过的最剧烈的一次。我认为,这种转变实际上将意味着几件事。
Speaker 216:02 - 16:43
So, the first is that more and more of the actual work that is done in the real economy, especially in, you know, kind of the, what we call the white collar economy. But in many, many areas of service and delivery and so on, like so much of that is going to be conducted by AI agents. And so, AI agents conducting the work, AI agents collaborating with each other, AI agents, you know, consuming services from each other and kind of, you know, purchasing effectively specialized intelligence or output, etc. Like, we're on a really interesting curve there. And so, the kind of agentic economy is being born as we speak.
Speaker 216:02 - 16:43
第一件事是,在真实经济中,越来越多实际完成的工作,尤其是在我们所谓的 white collar economy(白领经济)里,但也包括大量服务、交付等领域,其中非常多的工作都将由 AI agents(AI 智能体)来执行。也就是说,AI agents 在做工作,AI agents 彼此协作,AI agents 彼此消费服务,并且实际上是在购买专业化的 intelligence(智能)或输出,等等。我们正在进入一条非常有意思的演进曲线。因此,所谓的 agentic economy(智能体经济)此刻正在诞生。
Speaker 216:44 - 17:06
And in that world, we need a different infrastructure for the financial intermediation layer. Why? Well, we don't have an infrastructure that can support that. We don't have an infrastructure that can work globally, interoperably, instantly, that can be programmed through software layers by arbitrary pieces of software. That doesn't exist.
Speaker 216:44 - 17:06
而在那个世界里,我们需要一套不同的基础设施,来承载金融中介这一层。为什么?因为我们并没有能够支持它的基础设施。我们没有一种基础设施,能够做到全球运行、可互操作、即时处理,并且能够通过软件层被任意的软件程序化调用。这种基础设施并不存在。
Speaker 217:06 - 17:36
We need an infrastructure where the agents themselves can dynamically create and spin up different kind of financial endpoints themselves. We need transactions that can scale potentially into the billions or trillions of transactions. We don't have that. We also the ability to kind of handle transactions at micro scale as well. So, you know, for example, consuming a certain amount of intelligence might be $05 or $00 as it is with ease.
Speaker 217:06 - 17:36
我们需要一种基础设施,让 agents(智能体)自己就能动态创建并启动各种不同类型的金融端点。我们需要能够扩展到几十亿甚至上万亿笔交易的交易系统。现在我们还没有这样的东西。我们还需要能够处理微观规模交易的能力。所以,比如说,消费一定量的 intelligence(智能能力)时,费用可能是 $05 或 $00,而且要能够轻松实现。
Speaker 217:36 - 17:41
And so we need that to work. We need that to work in real time, again, between any piece of hardware, software, anywhere
Speaker 217:36 - 17:41
所以我们需要它真正运转起来。我们需要它能够实时运作,同样是在任何硬件、任何软件之间,在世界上的任何地方都能进行。
Speaker 117:41 - 17:47
in the world. Isn't it all about those stuff that people have been talking about for a long time in terms of just crypto? Like the benefits of crypto?
Speaker 117:41 - 17:47
这不就是人们长期以来谈论 crypto(加密货币)时一直在说的那些东西吗?比如 crypto 的好处?
Speaker 217:47 - 18:18
It hasn't really become possible until really just the last couple of years. So, it really took kind of third generation blockchains to actually deliver on this. So, now today, like, you know, you actually can look at like transaction volumes of USDC, which is by far the most transacted digital currency in the world, way more than anything else. And transaction volumes have grown incredibly. And off of like a monetary base, it's also growing, but the transaction volumes are growing way faster.
Speaker 217:47 - 18:18
其实直到最近这几年,这才真正变得可行。所以,确实是要到第三代 blockchain(区块链)出现之后,才真正开始兑现这些承诺。到今天,你实际上已经可以去看 USDC 的交易量了——它目前是全球交易量最大的 digital currency(数字货币),远远超过其他任何一种。而且它的交易量增长得极其惊人。它的 monetary base(货币基础)也在增长,但交易量的增长速度要快得多。
Speaker 218:18 - 18:37
And that's because money velocity has picked up. The cost to transact is now subsent reliably. And so, when you take out the cost, you can do more transactions. And so with Arc, which we can come back to, we now have an infrastructure where we can conduct transactions for a millionth of a penny, which just was never feasible
Speaker 218:18 - 18:37
这是因为货币流通速度提高了。如今交易成本已经能够稳定地降到低于一美分。所以,当你把成本拿掉之后,就可以进行更多交易。而借助 Arc——这个我们等会儿可以再展开——我们现在已经拥有一种基础设施,可以把单笔交易成本做到一美分的百万分之一,这在以前根本不可行。
Speaker 118:37 - 18:45
before. Yeah, tell us more about Arc, because I know you folks are rolling this out as your blockchain, etcetera. Would just love to learn more about what it is, what are the use cases, what differentiates I
Speaker 118:37 - 18:45
明白。多讲讲 Arc 吧,因为我知道你们正在把它作为你们的 blockchain 推出来,等等。我很想更多了解它到底是什么、有哪些 use cases(应用场景),以及它的差异化在哪里。
Speaker 218:47 - 19:30
would love to talk about that. I want to finish one other thought on this sort of authentic piece, which is, I think in addition to this sort of like financial infrastructure that's needed in this world, and the role that will play, and it ties back to your actual kind of question and stuff that you were thinking about before, my own view is that, you know, agents and seeing what happened with OpenClaw, and MoltBook, and all this stuff is all really interesting, because it showed that you could actually see emergent forms of cooperation, of interaction, of engagement amongst AIs. And that's pretty powerful. And clearly, like we're at the front edge of that. Like, there's going be a lot more of that.
Speaker 218:47 - 19:30
我很愿意谈这个。不过我想先把关于“真实性”这一块的另一个想法说完。我认为,除了这个世界所需要的这类金融基础设施,以及它将发挥的作用之外——这也和你刚才真正提出的问题、以及你之前在思考的那些事情有关——我的看法是,agents,以及我们在 OpenClaw、MoltBook 还有这类事情中看到的现象,都非常有意思,因为它表明你实际上已经能看到 AI 之间涌现出的合作、互动和参与形式。这一点非常有力量。很显然,我们现在还只是刚刚站在这个前沿上,后面还会出现更多这样的情况。
Speaker 219:30 - 20:33
And so, if you have AI agents that are from around the world, they could be generated from lots of different models, and LLMs, and the like, and they need to kind of coordinate, they need a medium, a trustworthy medium where they can do that, where they can instantiate an entity, where they can store value in that entity. They can execute and arrange contracts that intermediate the work and the tasks, and that where all of it is real time mathematically and computationally provable. And so blockchain infrastructure now actually gives us the building blocks for, when I say agentic economic activity, most people think, oh, that's e commerce or payment is not. Agentic economic activity is actually how does the organization of what we used to think of as labor and capital, but essentially like kind of how does this organization of kind of compute work happen, and what kinds of corporate forms might emerge in that world to do that. And so, I'm actually quite interested in that.
Speaker 219:30 - 20:33
所以,如果你有来自世界各地的 AI agents,它们可能由很多不同的 models(模型)、LLMs(大语言模型)等等生成,并且它们需要彼此协调,那么它们就需要一种媒介,一种可信的媒介,让它们能够完成这些事情:能够实例化一个实体,能够在这个实体中存储价值,能够执行并安排用于中介工作与任务的 contracts(合约),并且这一切都必须是实时的、能够从数学和计算上被证明的。因此,今天的 blockchain 基础设施实际上已经为此提供了基础构件。当我说 agentic economic activity(智能体经济活动)时,大多数人会觉得,哦,那就是 e-commerce(电子商务)或者 payment(支付)。其实并不是。所谓 agentic economic activity,真正的问题是:我们过去认为由 labor(劳动)和 capital(资本)构成的组织方式,本质上也就是这种 compute(算力/计算)工作如何被组织起来,以及在那样的世界里,会涌现出什么样的 corporate forms(公司形态/组织形态)来完成这件事。所以,这才是我真正相当感兴趣的方向。
Speaker 220:33 - 21:07
That does tie to ARC, because that's a design surface that we care about, which is basically, we describe ARC as an economic operating system. And this goes back to a comment I made earlier, which is these networks are operating systems. And we're moving now from the kind of like early adopter era, which you're very familiar with, which was mostly around like, you know, speculation on different things. There were some interesting things like NFTs or whatever. But like, we're now moving very squarely because of stablecoins into like the real economic activity side of this.
Speaker 220:33 - 21:07
这确实和 ARC 有关,因为那是我们关心的一个设计层面。我们基本上把 ARC 描述为一个 economic operating system(经济操作系统)。这也回到我之前提到的一点:这些网络本身就是操作系统。现在我们正从你非常熟悉的那种 early adopter(早期采用者)时代走出来——那时大多围绕着对各种东西的投机,也有一些有趣的东西,比如 NFTs 之类。但现在,由于 stablecoins(稳定币),我们正非常明确地转向真正的经济活动这一侧。
Speaker 221:08 - 21:49
And I think my view is that as we go forward, the substance of what we think of as contracts, the substance of what we think of as corporations, are going to be software machines themselves. And so, we're going to see this progression. And so, ARC as an economic operating system is conceived of as a compute environment for laying down all of the building blocks of economic activity, whether that's storing value moving money, or instantiating a corporate form, or manifesting and intermediating complex contracts. Like a lot of this stuff, which was conceptual a long time ago, is now like real. And we have a legal basis for it.
Speaker 221:08 - 21:49
我认为,随着时间推进,我们今天所理解的 contracts(合同)的实质、所理解的 corporations(公司)的实质,都会变成软件机器本身。因此,我们会看到这样一种演进。ARC 作为一个 economic operating system(经济操作系统),其构想是一个 compute environment(计算环境),用于搭建经济活动的所有基础模块——无论是存储价值、转移资金,还是实例化一种 corporate form(公司形态),或是把复杂合同具体化并加以中介。很多这类事情,很久以前还只是概念,现在已经变成现实了。而且我们已经有了相应的法律基础。
Speaker 221:49 - 22:15
We have regulatory clarity for it increasingly. And what's interesting is that the drivers of this machine economy are actually machines. And so, you know, our view is, you know, Arc is designed for this moment, which is a moment when machines are going to play a larger and larger role in all of the output of the economic system.
Speaker 221:49 - 22:15
我们也越来越多地拥有了与之相关的监管明确性。更有意思的是,这种 machine economy(机器经济)的驱动者,其实就是机器本身。所以,我们的看法是,Arc 就是为这个时刻而设计的——这是一个机器将在整个经济系统产出中扮演越来越大角色的时刻。
Speaker 122:15 - 22:43
So if I look at a lot of the blockchains that people have found exciting over the last few years, obviously there's Bitcoin, which, you know, was almost purposefully designed in a certain way to make it a little bit less adaptable to all these new things that are happening now. Yeah. Know, Solana, Ethereum, etc. Have been in the past the traditional places that people thought about ways to build smart contracts, to build a lot of the types of things that you just described. What do you think is the difference between some of these more traditional L1s or blockchains and sort of what you're doing at ARC?
Speaker 122:15 - 22:43
如果我看过去几年里人们觉得很令人兴奋的许多 blockchain(区块链),显然有 Bitcoin,它在某种程度上几乎是被有意设计成一种不那么容易适应当下这些新事物的形式。是的。像 Solana、Ethereum 等,在过去一直是人们传统上会想到的地方,用来构建 smart contracts(智能合约),构建你刚才描述的许多类型的东西。你认为,这些更传统的 L1s 或 blockchain,和你们在 ARC 所做的事情之间,区别是什么?
Speaker 222:44 - 23:14
Yeah. So, a few big things. I think the first is that, you know, as I think you were sharing, or we were talking about before we started recording, but like, you know, I think a lot of the designs on blockchains from, let's call it, the early adopter phase, a lot of it was sort of like, hey, we're going to build something that is completely censorship resistant, or outside of the reach of governments. It's sort of like we're building an alternative universe. And that's like the goal.
Speaker 222:44 - 23:14
是的,有几个很大的不同。我觉得第一点是,正如你刚才提到的,或者说我们在开始录音前聊到的,我认为很多 blockchain 在所谓 early adopter phase(早期采用阶段)里的设计,很大程度上都带有一种思路:我们要构建某种完全 censorship resistant(抗审查)的东西,或者是政府触及不到的东西。某种意义上,这像是在构建一个 alternative universe(平行宇宙),而那就是目标。
Speaker 223:15 - 23:52
And I think, you know, decentralization is itself a good goal. But I think as we move from early adopter to sort of mainstream scaling, where, you know, whether it's, you know, a major company like Walmart, or it's, you know, a household that's thinking about like how they store their wealth, the intermediaries, and there will continue to be intermediaries, we're not all going to be your own bank. The intermediaries have obligations in terms of the kind of like robustness of the infrastructure that they have to run. And so ARC is actually set up with a number of features. One is that it's actually a known validator set.
Speaker 223:15 - 23:52
我认为,decentralization(去中心化)本身当然是一个好的目标。但我觉得,当我们从 early adopter 走向某种 mainstream scaling(主流扩张)时,无论是像 Walmart 这样的大公司,还是一个在思考如何储存自身财富的家庭,中介机构都会存在,而且也将继续存在;我们不可能每个人都成为自己的银行。这些中介机构对其必须运行的基础设施,在稳健性方面是有义务的。所以 ARC 实际上配置了许多特性,其中之一就是它采用的是一个已知的 validator set(验证者集合)。
Speaker 223:52 - 24:09
And so the infrastructure operators of ARC are major financial infrastructure companies. And those are companies that are held to these very high standards for InfoSec compliance, reliability, availability. What are some examples
Speaker 223:52 - 24:09
因此,ARC 的基础设施运营者是大型金融基础设施公司。这些公司都被要求达到非常高的标准,包括 InfoSec(信息安全)合规性、可靠性、可用性。能不能举一些例子——
Speaker 124:09 - 24:11
of some of the validators on your network?
Speaker 124:09 - 24:11
你们网络上的一些 validators(验证者)都有哪些?
Speaker 224:11 - 24:41
So, we haven't announced the validators yet, but that will come in due course. But, you know, the model at a high level is that you have financial companies, financial infrastructure companies, including possibly like large technology companies that are responsible for running the infrastructure. So, it's a distributed infrastructure. But because of that, we're able to provide assurances. We're able to provide assurances that like the bad guys aren't running your transactions.
Speaker 224:11 - 24:41
所以,我们还没有公布 validators,但会在适当的时候公布。不过你知道,从高层来看,这个模型是:由金融公司、金融基础设施公司,可能也包括大型科技公司,来负责运行这套基础设施。所以,这是一种分布式基础设施。但正因为如此,我们能够提供保障。我们能够保证,运行你交易的不是那些坏人。
Speaker 224:41 - 24:46
And we can also run assurances that transactions actually have settlement finality.
Speaker 224:41 - 24:46
我们也能够提供保障,确保交易实际上具有 settlement finality(结算最终性)。
Speaker 124:46 - 24:47
Like, they
Speaker 124:46 - 24:47
比如说,它们
Speaker 224:47 - 25:02
can't be hard forked. They can't be reorged. And so, you can get what's called deterministic settlement finality. And that's really important, whether it's a security, or a piece of cash, or whatever it is, in essentially hundreds of milliseconds. And that's really important.
Speaker 224:47 - 25:02
不能被 hard fork(硬分叉),不能被 reorg(链重组)。因此,你可以获得所谓 deterministic settlement finality(确定性结算最终性)。而这一点非常重要——无论对应的是证券、现金,还是别的什么资产,都可以在本质上几百毫秒内完成。这一点非常重要。
Speaker 225:02 - 25:23
The other piece is that it's sort of designed with real money as the foundation. So, there's not like a volatile gas token. USDC is actually the default native token, which is now, under the law, essentially like a legal form of electronic money. So, you have real dollars as the way that people understand. And so, to a company that's like doing this, it's like, I pay AWS credits.
Speaker 225:02 - 25:23
另一部分是,它在设计上是以真实货币为基础的。所以这里不存在那种波动很大的 gas token。USDC 实际上是默认的原生 token,而且根据现行法律,它本质上已经是一种合法的电子货币形式。所以,你面对的是人们能够理解的真实美元。对于一家要做这件事的公司来说,这就像是:我支付 AWS credits。
Speaker 225:24 - 26:05
I understand how to budget for that, my treasury, my operations, my compliance, etc. So, this allows basically for like actual usage to make sense both to the user, to the developer, to the corporations, the FIs that deal with this. So, that's really important. And then I think the other is like, we've been building in a lot of primitives that are important to like the way that payment systems work, the way that capital markets work, the way that, you know, the privacy requirements that are needed in some of these cases, but still allowing for like compliance to happen. So, we've kind of purpose built this for a different kind of set of participants who need to run on it.
Speaker 225:24 - 26:05
我知道该如何为此做预算,我的 treasury(资金管理)、operations(运营)、compliance(合规)等等也都知道如何处理。因此,这基本上让真正的使用在用户、开发者、企业以及处理这些事务的 FIs(金融机构)各方看来都变得合理可行。所以这非常重要。然后我觉得另一点是,我们一直在构建许多基础 primitives(原语/基础构件),这些东西对于支付系统如何运作、资本市场如何运作,以及某些场景下所需要的隐私要求都很重要,同时仍然允许 compliance(合规)得以实现。所以,我们某种程度上是专门为另一类需要在其上运行的参与者而定制构建了这套系统。
Speaker 226:05 - 26:39
And we've had the advantage as Circle of working with many of the leading financial institutions that are getting into this space over the last couple of years, whether it's the Visas, or the BlackRocks, or the Bank of New York Mellons, or all these types of companies. So, we've been able to work with them, and we've been able to work with governments around the world to hear like, hey, like central bankers all over the world, like what's important as you think about like allowing this internet infrastructure to run the financial system? And we're kind of trying to incorporate in a lot of the kind of requirements in the sense that they have. And so that's very different. I think it's a different design space.
Speaker 226:05 - 26:39
而且,作为 Circle,我们在过去几年里有一个优势,就是一直在与许多进入这个领域的顶级金融机构合作,无论是 Visa、BlackRock,还是 Bank of New York Mellon,或者其他这类公司。所以,我们能够与他们合作,也能够与世界各国政府合作,去了解——比如,全世界的中央银行家们在思考“如何让这种互联网基础设施运行金融系统”时,什么才是重要的?我们正在尝试把他们所理解的很多这类要求纳入进来。所以这非常不同。我认为,这是一个不同的设计空间。
Speaker 226:39 - 27:00
And I think, you know, these new distributed network operating systems will need to support like the real economy's activity, not a kind of shadow economy. And so, that's just substantively different. There are a lot of other technical things I could talk about that are part of it. But those are, I think, helpful just in terms of framing this.
Speaker 226:39 - 27:00
而且我认为,这些新的分布式网络操作系统需要支持真实经济的活动,而不是某种影子经济。因此,这在本质上就是不同的。关于其中的其他很多技术细节,我还可以继续讲。但我认为,就帮助理解这个框架而言,上面这些已经比较有用了。
Speaker 127:00 - 27:24
What else do you think is interesting that's happening in the crypto world today outside of stablecoins and sort of related infrastructure? Because I know that there was a whole wave of things that people were doing. On the infrastructure side, was ZK rollups, there's a variety of approaches over the last few years. Besides stablecoins, is there anything that you think was especially interesting, or that will be impactful, or a lot of these things kind of infrastructure looking for solutions? I'm sort of curious how you think about crypto writ large right now.
Speaker 127:00 - 27:24
除了 stablecoins 以及某种相关基础设施之外,你觉得如今 crypto 世界里还有什么正在发生的事情是有意思的?因为我知道,之前人们做过整整一波各种东西。在基础设施这一侧,像 ZK rollups,过去几年里也出现了各种不同路径。除了 stablecoins 之外,有没有什么是你觉得特别有趣、会产生影响的,或者说这些东西很多都只是看起来像基础设施、却还在寻找解决方案?我有点好奇你现在是如何从整体上看待 crypto 的。
Speaker 227:24 - 28:02
Yeah. I mean, look, I think there's a lot of attention that has gone into kind of what I'll broadly call kind of scaling models. And so, if you take as your kind of design center that these are network computers, and these network computers are really good at establishing record keeping that is kind of public and available to all, and to perform computing on those records that's public and available to all. As general utility space, that's like super, super interesting. And so, a lot of this has been like, okay, well, how do we make sure that that can scale?
Speaker 227:24 - 28:02
嗯。我的意思是,你看,我觉得现在很多关注都投向了我会宽泛地称为 scaling models(扩展模型)的方向。所以,如果你把它们的设计中心理解为 network computers(网络计算机),而这些网络计算机非常擅长建立那种公开、所有人都可访问的记录系统,并且在这些公开、所有人都可访问的记录之上执行计算,那么把它当作一种通用基础设施空间来看,这就会非常、非常有意思。所以,很多工作其实都在围绕一个问题:好,那我们怎样才能确保它可以扩展?
Speaker 228:02 - 28:46
And so, as an example, right, in a world of like billions of AI agents that are swarming and doing other things, like scaling this is actually extremely important. So, ZK, you know, roll ups as an example, or zero knowledge proofs more broadly as a way for proving compute, which allows you to do compute off chain and then prove it to the on chain, that's actually really important. So, these sort of off chain, or trusted execution environments, and other things that provide cryptographic proofs of compute, or other kind of assertions becomes really key. So, actually, a lot of that research is now becoming extremely valuable. The same thing goes for a lot of that research and development is critical to enabling privacy.
Speaker 228:02 - 28:46
举个例子,对吧,在一个有数十亿 AI agents(AI 代理)四处协同、执行各种任务的世界里,这种扩展能力其实极其重要。所以,以 ZK rollups 为例,或者更广义地说,zero knowledge proofs(零知识证明)作为一种证明计算的方法,它让你可以在 off chain(链下)完成计算,然后再把证明提交到 on chain(链上),这其实非常重要。因此,这类 off chain 机制,或者 trusted execution environments(可信执行环境),以及其他能够提供计算的 cryptographic proofs(密码学证明)或其他某种断言的东西,就变得非常关键。所以,实际上,大量这方面的研究现在正变得极其有价值。同样,这其中很多研究与开发工作,对实现 privacy(隐私)也至关重要。
Speaker 228:46 - 29:16
And so, want all the benefits of kind of open, interoperable, kind of permissionless infrastructure, but we also want to be able to have privacy. Like corporations don't want everyone to see what they do, or we don't want to be doxxed, and like all this kind of stuff. And so, that's now coming into real production. That was like research y for a long time. Like, ARC day one is shipping with like built in privacy primitives, which is again the result of a lot of work for a long time.
Speaker 228:46 - 29:16
所以,我们既想要那种开放、可互操作、permissionless(无需许可)的基础设施所带来的全部好处,但我们也希望能够拥有 privacy。比如公司并不希望所有人都看到它们在做什么,或者我们也不希望自己的身份信息被 doxxed(人肉曝光),以及诸如此类的事情。所以,这些东西现在正在真正进入生产环境。很长一段时间里,这些都还只是研究性质的东西。比如,ARC day one 就会随产品一起交付 built in privacy primitives(内建的隐私原语),而这同样是长期大量工作的结果。
Speaker 229:17 - 30:00
And so those are important pieces. And then, you know, I think as kind of more large scale financial infrastructure comes over to this, as we move, you know, where the New York Stock Exchange or the biggest derivatives clearinghouses are like, yeah, we're going to move to an on chain world, like the scaling stuff becomes really, really critical. And so, I actually feel like now more than ever, like those big work streams coming online. And, you know, if I use as a reference point, like, you know, I spent a long time building on the early internet, the early 90s, and the early web, and like all this stuff all the way up until like 2001 for like, you know, for me, it was like ten years. And it was still, it was like awful still.
Speaker 229:17 - 30:00
所以这些都是重要的组成部分。然后,你知道,我觉得随着更大规模的金融基础设施开始迁移到这套体系上,随着我们走向一个这样的世界——比如 New York Stock Exchange 或者最大的衍生品清算机构都在说,是的,我们要迁移到 on chain 世界——那么这些扩展相关的东西就会变得非常、非常关键。所以,我其实感觉现在比以往任何时候都更像是:那些大的工作流正在真正上线。而且,如果我要找一个参照点的话,比如说,我曾经在 early internet、90 年代初的互联网,以及早期 web 上构建了很长时间,一路大概做到 2001 年,对我来说差不多是十年。而那时它其实仍然很糟糕。
Speaker 230:00 - 30:22
Like, it just like kept grinding, and it was like, how do we make this useful? How do we make this useful? How do we make this useful? And then you had, you know, a whole bunch of things happen that were in the background, like, you know, Wi Fi, broadband, you know, you finally got like usable other internet connected devices, and you could actually really start to do stuff. So, you could actually deliver software over the internet.
Speaker 230:00 - 30:22
就像是,它一直在艰难推进,而大家始终在问:我们怎么让这东西有用?我们怎么让这东西有用?我们怎么让这东西有用?然后,后台发生了一整批事情,比如 Wi Fi、broadband(宽带),你终于有了真正可用的其他联网设备,然后你才开始真的能做一些事。所以,你终于可以通过互联网交付软件了。
Speaker 230:22 - 30:45
You could actually deliver media over the internet. You could actually do communications, like real time communications over the internet. But it was like ten years in the desert or longer before you could even get there. And I kind of feel that way about the blockchain space. Like, it's been a dozen years or so, and now we're kind of having like the broadband moment, and the demands of society and the financial the agentic economy, all of that is sort of coming together at a really interesting time.
Speaker 230:22 - 30:45
你终于可以通过互联网交付媒体内容了。你终于可以通过互联网做通信了,比如实时通信。但在真正走到那一步之前,你经历了十年甚至更久的荒漠期。我对 blockchain 领域也有类似的感觉。就像,它已经走了大概十二年左右,而现在我们某种程度上正迎来类似 broadband 时刻;与此同时,社会的需求、金融体系,以及 agentic economy(代理型经济)的需求,所有这些都在一个非常有意思的时间点汇聚到了一起。
Speaker 230:45 - 30:46
I guess one thing that
Speaker 230:45 - 30:46
我想有一件事是
Speaker 130:46 - 30:59
people have been talking about for a long time in the crypto world is securitization of other assets under the blockchain. Yeah. And so that would be stock. So should you be able to buy fractions of Berkshire Hathaway using crypto? And should that be globally available?
Speaker 130:46 - 30:59
在 crypto 世界里,人们长期以来一直在讨论的一件事,就是把其他资产在 blockchain 上做 securitization(证券化)。对。比如 stock(股票)。那么,你是否应该能够用 crypto 购买 Berkshire Hathaway 的零碎份额?而且这种能力是否应该面向全球开放?
Speaker 130:59 - 31:11
Given the success of USDC and other stablecoins, that's made it even more interesting in terms of a provable model. When do you think that stuff will happen, and what approach do you think will be taken, and how It's does that tie into the Ozempic
Speaker 130:59 - 31:11
考虑到 USDC 和其他 stablecoins(稳定币)的成功,这让这件事作为一种可被验证的模式变得更加有吸引力。你觉得这种事情会在什么时候发生?你认为会采取什么方式?以及——它和 Ozempic 有什么关系?
Speaker 231:12 - 31:33
totally happening. There's a great site, if people are interested, called rwa.xyz. Real world assets is sort of what that refers to, RWA, xyz. I'm very proud because there are tokenized stocks that are out there, and the most active tokenized stock today is not Tesla. It's not the S and P index.
Speaker 231:12 - 31:33
这件事完全正在发生。如果大家感兴趣,有个很好的网站叫 rwa.xyz。RWA 指的是 real world assets(现实世界资产),也就是这个 xyz。让我很自豪的是,市场上已经有 tokenized stocks(代币化股票)了,而目前交易最活跃的 tokenized stock 不是 Tesla,也不是 S and P index。
Speaker 231:33 - 31:35
It's actually Circle. So, that was cool to see.
Speaker 231:33 - 31:35
实际上是 Circle。所以,看到这一点很酷。
Speaker 131:35 - 31:35
That's cool.
Speaker 131:35 - 31:35
这很酷。
Speaker 231:36 - 31:57
We also, you know, have seen this growth in like tokenized money markets. So, basically like on chain treasury bills. We actually operate the largest tokenized treasury product called USYC, like US yield coin. That's grown quite fast as well. And we run the largest tokenized euro as well, EURC.
Speaker 231:36 - 31:57
我们也已经看到,像 tokenized money markets(代币化货币市场)这样的东西在增长。所以,本质上就是 on-chain treasury bills(链上美国国债)。我们实际上运营着规模最大的 tokenized treasury product(代币化国债产品),叫 USYC,也就是 US yield coin。它增长得也相当快。另外我们还运营着规模最大的 tokenized euro,EURC。
Speaker 231:57 - 32:38
And so, we're definitely like looking at this broadening out. I think there's a huge effort right now at every layer of the whole financial system stack to go into tokenization. So, all the way down at the layer of like the people that keep the records of the stock, which is like, you know, if you're familiar, like the computer shares of the world, or companies of the world, up to like the layers that like are the depository clearing systems, like the DTCC, which, you know, most people don't know, but it's actually like the backplane of how all securities work. Like they're moving to tokenize. And then the actual like brokers and exchanges want to take those and support those tokens, and trading on those tokens, and distribution of those tokens.
Speaker 231:57 - 32:38
所以,我们肯定也在关注这类业务的进一步扩展。我认为,现在整个金融系统 stack(技术栈)的每一层都在大力推动 tokenization(代币化)。从最底层开始,比如那些负责保存股票记录的机构——如果你熟悉的话,就像 computer shares 这一类公司——一直到负责存管和清算系统的层级,比如 DTCC。大多数人并不知道,但它实际上是整个 securities(证券)运行方式背后的基础骨干。它们都在转向 tokenization。再往上,真正的 brokers(券商)和 exchanges(交易所)也希望接入并支持这些 token(代币),支持这些 token 的交易,以及这些 token 的分发。
Speaker 232:38 - 33:02
So, NASDAQ, New York Stock Exchange, all of them, they're all doing this as we speak. And as we speak, the SEC has been providing clear guidelines on how to do that. And so, they actually issued guidance just about a month or so ago that basically said, here's what you do in all these layers. Here's your obligations. And so, we're at a point where like technology and then the market's desire is creating that.
Speaker 232:38 - 33:02
所以,NASDAQ、New York Stock Exchange,它们所有机构此刻都在做这件事。与此同时,SEC 也一直在提供关于如何推进这件事的明确指导。实际上,就在大约一个月前,他们刚发布了指导意见,基本上就是在说:在所有这些层级里,你们该怎么做;你们各自有哪些义务。所以,我们现在正处在这样一个阶段:technology(技术)和 market(市场)的需求正在共同推动这件事发生。
Speaker 233:02 - 33:16
And right now, the interesting thing about things like tokenized stocks is mostly it's interesting to enable people not in The US to access these. That's where a lot of the growth has happened, because not everyone has access. Used go
Speaker 233:02 - 33:16
而且现在,像 tokenized stocks 这类东西有意思的地方,主要在于它能让不在 The US 的人也能接触到这些资产。很多增长其实都发生在这方面,因为并不是每个人都有渠道进入。过去也有过相反的情况。
Speaker 133:16 - 33:25
the other way, right? There used to be Chinese stocks that were basically held in third party instruments that you could purchase on stock exchanges so you could participate in some of the Chinese listed Right.
Speaker 133:16 - 33:25
对吧?以前也有一些 Chinese stocks,基本上是通过第三方工具持有的,你可以在证券交易所购买这些工具,这样就能参与一部分在中国上市的资产。对。
Speaker 233:25 - 33:46
Yeah. Know. I mean, that's definitely some of the packagers of like ETFs and funds and stuff have kind of mirroring for sure. But, you know, I think like this is similar to like, you know, when we went through like the web becoming available or broadband really hitting the scale. A lot of times people just think, oh, I have this existing product.
Speaker 233:25 - 33:46
对,我知道。我的意思是,这当然有点像那些做 ETF 和 fund 这类产品的包装方,确实会做某种镜像映射。但你知道,我觉得这有点类似于当年 web 开始普及,或者 broadband 真正达到规模的时候。很多时候,人们只是想:哦,我已经有一个现成的产品了。
Speaker 233:46 - 33:58
I can now put it over here. Like, here's the TV show. I'm going to put the TV show over here. I think what becomes a lot more interesting, or here's the game. It's this game that used to be on a CD, and now you can download it or whatever.
Speaker 233:46 - 33:58
我现在可以把它搬到这边来。比如,这里有个 TV show,我把这个 TV show 放到这边。我觉得真正更有意思的是——或者说,这里有个 game,这个 game 以前是在 CD 上的,现在你可以下载了,诸如此类。
Speaker 233:58 - 34:16
I think the really interesting thing is like, what can you do that you couldn't do before? What kind of utility gets unlocked, whether it's fractionalization, or how you can borrow and lend on these things, or how you could package them together in different ways and enable And AI could play a pretty significant role in that
Speaker 233:58 - 34:16
我觉得真正有意思的问题是:你现在能做哪些以前做不了的事?会释放出什么样的 utility(效用)?无论是 fractionalization(碎片化持有),还是你如何基于这些东西进行 borrow and lend(借贷),又或者你如何用不同方式把它们打包组合起来并加以实现。而 AI 在这件事里也可能会扮演相当重要的角色。
Speaker 134:16 - 34:26
as Sounds like you could really tie into some of the prediction market stuff as well that's been happening. Because to some extent, the world's biggest prediction markets are actually stock markets, or financial markets, I should say, more broadly.
Speaker 134:16 - 34:26
听起来这也确实可以和最近发生的一些 prediction market(预测市场)相关的事情结合起来。因为在某种程度上,世界上最大的 prediction market 其实就是 stock market,或者更广义地说,financial market。
Speaker 234:26 - 34:54
Yeah. Prediction markets themselves are becoming kind of parallel infrastructure for people who participate in stock markets, right? In fact, the biggest adopters, it seems, of the market makers of prediction markets are actually the people who are trying to figure out what is reality, and what does that mean for companies and equities and stuff and the interplay or whatnot. And yeah, I mean, we're seeing that. I mean, USDC powers Polymarket, for example.
Speaker 234:26 - 34:54
对。prediction market 本身正在逐渐变成一套与 stock market 参与者并行的基础设施,对吧?事实上,看起来 prediction market 里最大的 adopter,或者说 market maker,实际上就是那些试图搞清楚“现实到底是什么”以及“这对公司、equities(股票)之类意味着什么”的人,也包括其中的相互作用之类。对,我们确实看到了这种情况。比如说,USDC 就在为 Polymarket 提供支撑。
Speaker 234:54 - 35:08
And so, the same guys that are, you know, trading derivatives over here on, you know, oil or Bitcoin over here are also like, I'm moving my money quickly using USDC over here to like figure out what's going to happen in some event.
Speaker 234:54 - 35:08
所以,同一批人一边在这边交易 oil 或 Bitcoin 的 derivatives(衍生品),一边也会在另一边用 USDC 快速调动资金,去判断某个事件接下来会怎么发展。
Speaker 135:08 - 35:18
That's cool. The one other thing that I think has been happening a little bit recently is there's been a couple papers that have been focused on basically tying proof of work into just generic inference work.
Speaker 135:08 - 35:18
很酷。我觉得最近还发生了另一件事,就是已经有几篇 paper(论文)开始关注一件事:本质上把 proof of work(工作量证明)和通用的 inference(推理)工作绑定起来。
Speaker 235:18 - 35:19
Yes. In other words, can
Speaker 235:18 - 35:19
对。换句话说,能不能
Speaker 135:19 - 35:28
you tie those two things so you're being very GPU efficient in terms of what you're doing, but also you can effectively generate incremental revenue through GPU usage while you're using it for inference for other
Speaker 135:19 - 35:28
把这两件事结合起来,这样你在做的事情上就能非常高效地利用 GPU,但同时,当你把 GPU 用于其他的 inference 时,也能通过 GPU 的使用有效地产生增量收入。
Speaker 235:28 - 36:26
Yeah, I'm really interested in And I think, again, the little conversation we were having before we recorded, like, you know, proof of work obviously was itself an innovation, and sort of essentially like the exhaust of the proof of work of Bitcoin is just like the exhaust of energy consumption. And so, doesn't actually In some ways, it's waste, in a sense. The energy is waste. So, I think the idea of essentially like inference compute as GPU, inference compute as proof of work. And so the work itself is the inference, and that as the underlying basis for proof of work cryptocurrency is pretty interesting, and would be, you know, potentially something that could align with the kind of monetary principles of something like Bitcoin, but actually be productive proof of work.
Speaker 235:28 - 36:26
对,我对此非常感兴趣。而且我想,还是回到我们开始录音前那段简短的对话,你知道,proof of work 显然本身就是一种创新,而某种意义上,Bitcoin 的 proof of work 的“尾气”基本上就只是能源消耗的“尾气”。所以它实际上在某些方面并没有产出什么;从某种意义上说,这是一种浪费。被浪费的是能源。所以我认为,这种本质上把 inference compute(推理算力)作为 GPU 上的工作、把 inference compute 作为 proof of work 的想法,也就是让“工作”本身就是 inference,并把它作为 proof of work cryptocurrency(工作量证明加密货币)的底层基础,是相当有意思的。这样一来,它可能既能契合 Bitcoin 这类事物的某些货币原则,同时又成为一种真正具有生产性的 proof of work。
Speaker 236:26 - 36:48
That's really interesting. And so, you know, my own view, and this is like, you know, I think goes back a long time, is like the, you know, people have kind of axiomatically sort of assumed like, well, Bitcoin is the thing. It got the network effects. It has all of this. And I've always said like, I don't know what we're going be using in ten years.
Speaker 236:26 - 36:48
这真的很有意思。所以,你知道,我自己的看法——而且我觉得这其实是很久以来的一贯看法——是,人们某种程度上会把一件事当成公理式前提:好吧,Bitcoin 就是那个答案。它已经获得了 network effects(网络效应),它拥有这一切。而我一直在说的是,我并不知道十年后我们会用什么。
Speaker 236:48 - 37:12
Like, we don't know. Now, Bitcoin has lasted a really long time. But I think like the paradigm shift that we're seeing in energy infrastructure, in the performance of, you know, the conversion of energy into intelligence, and the compute layers, that, it certainly opens up a new avenue to think about this that wasn't readily available fifteen years ago. So, if you
Speaker 236:48 - 37:12
比如说,我们并不知道。现在,Bitcoin 的确已经持续了很长时间。但我认为,我们正在看到的 energy infrastructure(能源基础设施)的范式转移、把能源转化为 intelligence(智能)的性能提升,以及 compute layers(计算层)的变化,确实为我们提供了一条新的思考路径,而这在十五年前并不是现成可用的。所以,如果你
Speaker 137:12 - 37:15
were to give one piece of advice to agents, it would not be buy Bitcoin.
Speaker 137:12 - 37:15
要给 agents(智能体)一条建议,那不会是去买 Bitcoin。
Speaker 237:18 - 37:19
Just joking. I have a
Speaker 237:18 - 37:19
开个玩笑。我有一个
Speaker 137:19 - 37:43
better question. Terms of, say we were to think out ten years, what does that world look like in your mind? And obviously, we're going through a period of intense change. I'm finding it incredibly hard to predict the future right now in terms of just what's going happen in AI, much less AI plus crypto plus the global economic system plus everything else. So, given all that and putting that aside, yeah, exactly, what is your vision of the future?
Speaker 137:19 - 37:43
这是个更好的问题。比如说,如果我们把时间拉到十年后,在你脑海里,那个世界会是什么样子?显然,我们正处在一个剧烈变化的时期。就眼下 AI 会发生什么,我都觉得已经非常难预测未来了,更别说 AI 加上 crypto,再加上全球经济体系以及其他一切因素。所以,考虑到这些,同时先把这些复杂性放在一边,是的,没错,你对未来的愿景究竟是什么?
Speaker 237:43 - 38:00
Yeah. Well, I mean a couple things I would say. The first is sort of the thing that everyone is debating right now is the pace of AI diffusion, right? So, what is the pace of AI diffusion? And what does that then imply in terms of the kind of amount of change that we're going to have to deal with?
Speaker 237:43 - 38:00
对。我是说,我会讲几件事。第一件,其实就是现在所有人都在争论的那个问题:AI diffusion(AI 扩散)的速度,对吧?所以,AI diffusion 的速度到底有多快?而这又意味着,我们将不得不应对多大规模的变化?
Speaker 238:00 - 38:26
And so, that's all debatable, right? You hear Dario debating that versus others and so on. But like, it definitely feels like the diffusion limiters are, in some cases, bureaucratic, in some cases legal, in some cases human risk, or other things, right? But we these limiters that are there. But it does seem like the pace of diffusion is accelerating and will continue to accelerate.
Speaker 238:00 - 38:26
所以,这一切都是可以争论的,对吧?你会听到 Dario 和其他人在争论这个问题,等等。但确实感觉到,限制 diffusion(扩散)的因素,在某些情况下是官僚体系,在某些情况下是法律问题,在某些情况下是人为风险,或者其他因素,对吧?总之,这些限制因素是存在的。但看起来,diffusion 的速度正在加快,而且还会继续加快。
Speaker 238:27 - 39:14
That's pretty dramatic. So, I guess like my own view, it's very rooted in my own like political and economic philosophy, is that we have a real opportunity to create essentially new social, political, and economic organizational structures. And in many ways, like we have to. There's a kind of, you know, in these periods, whether it's the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution and other things, like there's these periods where there's like a new definition of the social contract. And that new definition of the social contract is then in turn reflected in social, political, and economic ordering, and the mechanisms that we use for those things.
Speaker 238:27 - 39:14
这会非常剧烈。所以,我想,我自己的看法其实深深扎根于我个人的政治和经济哲学:我们拥有一个真正的机会,去创造本质上全新的社会、政治和经济组织结构。而且在很多方面,我们也必须这样做。有一种情况是,在这些历史时期里——无论是 Enlightenment、Industrial Revolution,还是其他类似阶段——都会出现一种对 social contract(社会契约)的重新定义。而这种对 social contract 的新定义,随后又会反映在社会、政治和经济秩序中,以及我们为这些事情所使用的机制之中。
Speaker 239:14 - 39:54
And it feels like to me like we're going to forced through that. And I think, you know, that's simultaneously like terrifying and exciting, etc. And I am of the view that we are going to have a kind of lag effect between the disruption and the establishment of those new institutional forms. But at the same time, I actually believe like new institutional forms are going to be emergent out of this. And so, as I talked about earlier, like the formation of these kind of on chain organizations that have different forms of governance and contracting a mixture of human and agentic actors, like that seems like we're going have a lot more of that.
Speaker 239:14 - 39:54
而在我看来,我们将会被迫经历这个过程。我认为,这同时既令人恐惧,也令人兴奋,等等。而我的判断是,在旧秩序被打乱与那些新制度形态建立起来之间,会存在一种滞后效应。但与此同时,我确实相信,新的制度形态会从这一过程中涌现出来。所以,正如我之前提到的,这类 on chain(链上)组织的形成——它们有不同形式的治理和 contracting(契约安排),并且由 human 与 agentic actors(具代理性的行为体)混合构成——看起来我们会看到更多这样的东西。
Speaker 239:54 - 40:26
We're going to probably have huge proliferation of that. And it may be that those corporate forms are like the most productive corporate forms that we've ever seen in economic history. And then, you know, they'll need to be kind of like an overlay into the governance systems of, you know, political organizations and systems as well. And it, yeah. So, you know, my view is we're going to have simultaneously all around the world a renegotiation of the social contract.
Speaker 239:54 - 40:26
这类事物很可能会大量 proliferate(扩散、激增)。而且也许,这些 corporate forms(公司形态)会成为我们在经济史上见过的生产力最高的公司形态。然后,你知道,它们也需要某种形式地叠加进政治组织和政治系统的 governance systems(治理系统)之中。是的。所以,我的看法是,全球各地将会同时发生一场对 social contract(社会契约)的重新谈判。
Speaker 240:27 - 40:43
And it's going require new systems of participation in economics and governance that we haven't had. That's like very high level mumbo jumbo y, but it's also, you know, sort of how I think about it at a high level.
Speaker 240:27 - 40:43
而这将要求新的经济参与和治理参与系统,是我们以前从未拥有过的。这个说法听起来很像一种非常高层次、很抽象的 mumbo jumbo(空泛大话),但这也的确是我在高层面上思考这个问题的方式。
Speaker 140:43 - 41:05
That's super interesting. Have you ever read a book called Lady of Mazes? No. It's like a sci fi book from, I don't know, fifteen years ago about the post ATI world. And part of it is as a big enough block or demographic emerges in human society, an overlay AI agent that's observing everything spawns a specific agent that represents that viewpoint that then is part of this sort of virtual senate of agents negotiating policies.
Speaker 140:43 - 41:05
这非常有意思。你读过一本叫 Lady of Mazes 的书吗?没有。那有点像一本大概十五年前的 sci-fi(科幻)小说,讲的是 post ATI world(ATI 之后的世界)。其中有一部分设定是:当人类社会中出现一个足够大的群体或人口结构时,一个负责观察一切的 overlay AI agent(覆盖层 AI 代理)就会生成一个专门代表该观点的 agent,而这个 agent 随后会成为某种由 agents 组成的虚拟 senate(元老院)的一部分,参与政策协商。
Speaker 141:05 - 41:11
So it's kind of this interesting view of how can you spontaneously spawn these sorts of systems from a governance perspective, which is kind cool.
Speaker 141:05 - 41:11
所以,这是一个挺有意思的视角:从治理的角度看,这类系统如何能够自发地涌现出来,这还挺酷的。
Speaker 241:11 - 41:12
I would love to read that.
Speaker 241:11 - 41:12
我很想读一读那个。
Speaker 141:12 - 41:27
What is your prediction? And so if you look at a lot of prior ways of technology, their actual impact to GDP has been difficult to tease out. Right? So the productivity gains of the internet versus actual GDP growth and things like that have been notorious. And there's all sorts of reasons for that.
Speaker 141:12 - 41:27
你的预测是什么?如果你回头看很多以往的技术,它们对 GDP 的实际影响其实一直很难剥离出来,对吧?比如互联网带来的生产率提升,与实际 GDP 增长之间的关系之类的问题,长期以来都很棘手。而这背后有各种各样的原因。
Speaker 141:27 - 41:45
It could be measurement, could be deflationary aspects of some of these things, it could be a variety of things. How do you think about the GDP impact of AI? So if you think ahead five years, what do you think the global economy is? 10 bigger, 50% bigger, three times the size? Does that even matter as a metric anymore?
Speaker 141:27 - 41:45
可能是测量问题,也可能是这些东西某些通缩性的影响,还可能是各种别的因素。你怎么看 AI 对 GDP 的影响?如果往后看五年,你觉得全球经济会是什么样?大 10 倍、增大 50%,还是变成原来的三倍?GDP 作为一个指标,到那时还有意义吗?
Speaker 241:46 - 41:54
I mean, like I see this debate all the time, and Kathy Woods talking about, you know, we're going to have 10% GDP growth for the 2030s.
Speaker 241:46 - 41:54
我的意思是,我一直都能看到这种争论,像 Kathy Woods 在说,到了 2030 年代,我们会有 10% 的 GDP 增长。
Speaker 141:54 - 41:55
Yeah, sure.
Speaker 141:54 - 41:55
对,当然。
Speaker 241:55 - 42:49
You know, etcetera. I don't quite know what to think. I mean, I think, you know, it's quite plausible that the kind of giant leaps that we see in kind of productive output in a huge range of industrial to other commercial services, etc, like really drives a very significant discontinuous jump in GDP at an absolute level. It'll have, in many ways, probably less meaning than we've historically had with GDP. And, you know, the kind of economic well-being indexes that we think about, like GDP will be, you know, the risk here is that GDP effectively, the GDP growth is a sort of capital capturing more capital at the expense of humans.
Speaker 241:55 - 42:49
诸如此类吧。我也不太确定该怎么想。我的意思是,我觉得很有可能,我们在大范围行业生产以及其他商业服务等领域看到的那种生产性产出的巨大跃升,确实会在绝对水平上推动 GDP 出现非常显著、非连续式的跳升。但在很多方面,它的意义可能会比历史上我们赋予 GDP 的意义更小。而且,我们所考虑的那类经济福祉指标,比如 GDP,这里的风险在于:GDP 增长在事实上可能只是资本以牺牲人类利益为代价,攫取更多资本的一种表现。
Speaker 242:49 - 43:21
Like, that's the real risk. And so, like GDP growth generally has been like a really great thing. And so the question is, is like, will it remain a great thing? Do we have the new social contract to deal with that yet? But I guess my general view, just sort of as a technologist talking about, you know, seeing what we see with diffusion and kind of other changes, like it does feel like we have the potential for double digit GDP numbers in the 2030s.
Speaker 242:49 - 43:21
这才是真正的风险。所以,GDP 增长总体上一直都是一件很好的事。问题在于,它还会继续是一件好事吗?我们现在是否已经有了能够应对这一点的新社会契约?不过,如果只是作为一个 technologist(技术工作者)来谈,基于我们在 diffusion(扩散)以及其他变化上所看到的情况,我的总体看法是:到了 2030 年代,GDP 增长达到两位数是有潜力发生的。
Speaker 243:21 - 43:36
Like that seems not unrealistic to me. Not that that's gonna be uniform all around the world, but certainly in large large parts of the world, that seems very achievable based on what I see.
Speaker 243:21 - 43:36
我觉得那看起来并不不现实。当然,这不可能在全世界各地都完全一致,但至少在世界上很大很大的地区,按照我所看到的情况,这似乎是非常可以实现的。
Speaker 143:36 - 43:40
Amazing. Thank so you much for joining us today at No Priors. Super interesting conversation. Thank you.
Speaker 143:36 - 43:40
太精彩了。非常感谢你今天来到 No Priors。真的非常有意思的一场对话。谢谢你。
Speaker 343:42 - 43:59
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Speaker 343:42 - 43:59
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原文 ↗https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyobeqMdbeI
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